气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Evaluating the expansion of African species into Europe driven by climate change

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DOI	10.1111/ddi.13840
	Evaluating the expansion of African species into Europe driven by climate change
	Lopez-Ramirez, Sandro; Marquez, Ana Luz; Real, Raimundo; Munoz, Antonio-Roman
发表日期	2024
ISSN	1366-9516
EISSN	1472-4642
起始页码	30
结束页码	6
卷号	30 期号:6
英文摘要	AimOngoing climate change is presently influencing the distribution ranges of numerous species, with both range expansions and latitudinal shifts being observed. In southern Europe, a biogeographical border that separates African and European biota, while at the same time acting as a migration bridge for many species, these changes are of particular relevance. This study aimed to analyse the responses of nine typically African birds to climate change to provide information on the ongoing and future occupation of Europe by these species.LocationWestern Palearctic and surrounding areas.MethodsTo this end, the distributions of the species in their native ranges were modelled, both in the present and in future climate scenarios, using their current breeding ranges and a set of topographic and climatic variables. The climatic favourability for the nine species was then combined using fuzzy logic.ResultsThe results showed that southern Europe is highly favourable for our set of African birds, except for Ruppell's Vulture, and future forecasts indicated that this favourability would increase further north, again excluding the African Vulture.Main conclusionsIf the climate continues to warm, further arrivals of individuals are to be expected, increasing the possibility that self-sustaining populations may become established in southern Europe. Furthermore, new African species may start to occupy this area, with the likelihood of an Africanisation of the European fauna. Considering the role played by southern Europe as a potential focal point for the colonisation of this continent by African species, it is important to track their northward expansion and future spread.
英文关键词	African birds; Africanisation; climate change; eBird; favourability; fuzzy logic; species distribution models; Western Palearctic
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology
WOS记录号	WOS:001194404500001
来源期刊	DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/308448
作者单位	Universidad de Malaga
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lopez-Ramirez, Sandro,Marquez, Ana Luz,Real, Raimundo,et al. Evaluating the expansion of African species into Europe driven by climate change[J],2024,30(6).
APA	Lopez-Ramirez, Sandro,Marquez, Ana Luz,Real, Raimundo,&Munoz, Antonio-Roman.(2024).Evaluating the expansion of African species into Europe driven by climate change.DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS,30(6).
MLA	Lopez-Ramirez, Sandro,et al."Evaluating the expansion of African species into Europe driven by climate change".DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS 30.6(2024).