气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Do green parties in government benefit from natural catastrophes? How wildfires are linked to voting

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DOI	10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102749
	Do green parties in government benefit from natural catastrophes? How wildfires are linked to voting
	Kronborg, Anton; Hedegaard, Frederik; Klindt, Isak; Vandeweerdt, Clara
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0261-3794
EISSN	1873-6890
起始页码	88
卷号	88
英文摘要	This paper investigates whether wildfires are linked to increases in vote share for a green party in government. We argue that natural disasters move climate change action up on voters' agendas, consequently affecting electoral behavior. Making use of the impact of an intense wildfire season in Sweden in 2018, we analyze changes in propensity to vote for a green governing party after experiencing wildfires in the election year. The Green party's vote share is significantly larger than expected in affected municipalities compared to unaffected municipalities, with an overall effect size of about 1 percentage point in the national election and 1.2 percentage points in the local election. These effect sizes are substantial given typical green party vote shares. Meanwhile, the incumbent Social Democratic party appears to have been electorally punished for the fires. The findings contribute to the literature on natural disasters and climate opinion, as well as on the impact of local conditions on electoral behavior.
英文关键词	Political behavior; Natural disasters; Issue voting; Economic voting; Climate change; Green parties
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Government & Law
WOS类目	Political Science
WOS记录号	WOS:001198074100001
来源期刊	ELECTORAL STUDIES
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/308111
作者单位	University of Oslo; University of Copenhagen; University of Copenhagen
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kronborg, Anton,Hedegaard, Frederik,Klindt, Isak,et al. Do green parties in government benefit from natural catastrophes? How wildfires are linked to voting[J],2024,88.
APA	Kronborg, Anton,Hedegaard, Frederik,Klindt, Isak,&Vandeweerdt, Clara.(2024).Do green parties in government benefit from natural catastrophes? How wildfires are linked to voting.ELECTORAL STUDIES,88.
MLA	Kronborg, Anton,et al."Do green parties in government benefit from natural catastrophes? How wildfires are linked to voting".ELECTORAL STUDIES 88(2024).