气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projection of the precipitation-induced landslide risk in China by 2050

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ad2435
	Projection of the precipitation-induced landslide risk in China by 2050
	Ge, Shilong; Wang, Jun; Jiang, Chao
发表日期	2024
ISSN	1748-9326
起始页码	19
结束页码	2
卷号	19 期号:2
英文摘要	China is highly susceptible to landslides and debris flow disasters as it is a mountainous country with unique topography and monsoon climate. In this study, an efficient statistical model is used to predict the landslide risk in China under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 by 2050, with the precipitation data from global climate models (GCMs) as the driving field. Additionally, for the first time, the impact of future changes in land use types on landslide risk is explored. By distinguishing between landslide susceptibility and landslide risk, the results indicate that the landslide susceptibility in China will change in the near future. The occurrence of high-frequency landslide risks is concentrated in southwestern and southeastern China, with an overall increase in landslide frequency. Although different GCMs differ in projecting the future spatio-temporal distribution of precipitation, there is a consensus that the increased landslide risk in China's future is largely attributed to the increase in extremely heavy precipitation. Moreover, alterations in land use have an impact on landslide risk. In the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, Qinghai Tibet Plateau, and Loess Plateau, changes in land types can mitigate landslide risks. Conversely, in other areas, such changes may increase the risk of landslides. This study aims to facilitate informed decision-making and preparedness measures to protect lives and assets in response to the changing climate conditions.
英文关键词	landslides projection; climate change; HighResMIP; land use cover change; extreme precipitation
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001157463400001
来源期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/307946
作者单位	Beijing Forestry University; Chinese Academy of Sciences; Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CAS; Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ge, Shilong,Wang, Jun,Jiang, Chao. Projection of the precipitation-induced landslide risk in China by 2050[J],2024,19(2).
APA	Ge, Shilong,Wang, Jun,&Jiang, Chao.(2024).Projection of the precipitation-induced landslide risk in China by 2050.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,19(2).
MLA	Ge, Shilong,et al."Projection of the precipitation-induced landslide risk in China by 2050".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 19.2(2024).