气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future projections of meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts in China using the emergent constraint

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101767
	Future projections of meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts in China using the emergent constraint
	Xue, Rufan; Sun, Bo; Li, Wanling; Li, Huixin; Zhou, Botao; Luo, Xiaochun; Ai, Wenwen
发表日期	2024
EISSN	2214-5818
起始页码	53
卷号	53
英文摘要	Study focus: In the context of global warming, droughts occur more frequently and have caused great losses to human society. Therefore, understanding the potential changes in future droughts under climate change is of great scientific significance for disaster prevention and mitigation. In this paper, combining with climate models from CMIP6, the emergent constraint and the skill scoring methods are used to analyze the characteristics of meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts in China under four socioeconomic scenarios in the mid and late 21st century. New hydrological insights for the region: In the mid-21st century, there are more frequent meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts in northern China. In the late 21st century, sustained and more intense droughts are more likely to occur in China than in the mid-21st century. Additionally, the relationship between meteorological drought and agricultural/hydrological drought is strengthened to varying degrees in the future. From the perspective of extreme drought events, the probabilities of extreme drought events with long duration and high severity increase significantly in Northwest and Central China under each scenarios. In a higher socioeconomic scenario, drought is suppressed in the mid 21st century, but is intensified in the late 21st century. These findings are of great significance for drought monitoring under climate change and can provide a basis for developing measures to respond to drought.
英文关键词	Drought; CMIP6; Emergent constraint; China; Climate change
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Water Resources
WOS类目	Water Resources
WOS记录号	WOS:001221949500001
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/307898
作者单位	Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology; Southern Marine Science & Engineering Guangdong Laboratory; Chinese Academy of Sciences; Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CAS
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xue, Rufan,Sun, Bo,Li, Wanling,et al. Future projections of meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts in China using the emergent constraint[J],2024,53.
APA	Xue, Rufan.,Sun, Bo.,Li, Wanling.,Li, Huixin.,Zhou, Botao.,...&Ai, Wenwen.(2024).Future projections of meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts in China using the emergent constraint.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES,53.
MLA	Xue, Rufan,et al."Future projections of meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts in China using the emergent constraint".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES 53(2024).