气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Assessment of climate change in the North-East region of Côte d'Ivoire: Future precipitation, temperature, and meteorological drought using CMIP6 models

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DOI	10.1080/23311916.2024.2345506
	Assessment of climate change in the North-East region of Côte d'Ivoire: Future precipitation, temperature, and meteorological drought using CMIP6 models
	Kouman, Kouame Donald; Akpoti, Komlavi; Kouadio, Boyossoro Helene; Kabo-bah, Amos T.; Dembele, Moctar; Siabi, Ebenezer K.; Mensah, Jacob Kofi
发表日期	2024
ISSN	2331-1916
起始页码	11
结束页码	1
卷号	11 期号:1
英文摘要	Climate change effects are expected to be profoundly local and region-specific, underlining the urgent need for local-level assessments. This study emphasizes the agriculturally important Zanzan region of northeastern C & ocirc;te d'Ivoire and examines future changes in precipitation, temperature, and resultant drought conditions based on six global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) scenarios - SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. We integrate data from 12 stations within the Zanzan region, applying CMhyd software to correct model biases. Key statistical metrics confirm the well-calibrated nature of the corrected GCMs vis-& agrave;-vis observed data. Projections show a decrease in annual precipitation by an average of 133 mm and 177 mm under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios respectively by 2100. Future precipitation patterns suggest a shift towards the prevalent dry season. Tmax and Tmin are projected to increase by +3 degrees C and +4.8 degrees C (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) and +3.3 degrees C (both scenarios) respectively, by the end of the century. These changes suggest an intensification of severe droughts, particularly in the 2050s and 2080s, as assessed by the SPEI. Additionally, extreme temperatures (TX90p) and consecutive dry days (CDD) are projected to intensify, posing imminent threats to food security, water resources, and public health in the Zanzan region. This study bridges a critical gap by offering localized insights into future climate scenarios, thereby enhancing our understanding of the region-specific impacts of climate change. The research also underscores the urgency of adaptation and mitigation strategies tailored to the Zanzan region's vulnerabilities.
英文关键词	Climate change effects; global climate models (GCMs); bias correction; future precipitation; temperature; drought; Marco Montemurro, Arts et Metiers ParisTech - Centre de Bordeaux-Talence, France; climatology; climate change; climatology & meteorology
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Engineering
WOS类目	Engineering, Multidisciplinary
WOS记录号	WOS:001215824400001
来源期刊	COGENT ENGINEERING
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/307825
作者单位	CGIAR; International Water Management Institute (IWMI); Universite Felix Houphouet-Boigny
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kouman, Kouame Donald,Akpoti, Komlavi,Kouadio, Boyossoro Helene,et al. Assessment of climate change in the North-East region of Côte d'Ivoire: Future precipitation, temperature, and meteorological drought using CMIP6 models[J],2024,11(1).
APA	Kouman, Kouame Donald.,Akpoti, Komlavi.,Kouadio, Boyossoro Helene.,Kabo-bah, Amos T..,Dembele, Moctar.,...&Mensah, Jacob Kofi.(2024).Assessment of climate change in the North-East region of Côte d'Ivoire: Future precipitation, temperature, and meteorological drought using CMIP6 models.COGENT ENGINEERING,11(1).
MLA	Kouman, Kouame Donald,et al."Assessment of climate change in the North-East region of Côte d'Ivoire: Future precipitation, temperature, and meteorological drought using CMIP6 models".COGENT ENGINEERING 11.1(2024).