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DOI	10.1186/s12870-024-04965-1
	The influence of climate change on the future distribution of two Thymus species in Iran: MaxEnt model-based prediction
	Hosseini, Naser; Ghorbanpour, Mansour; Mostafavi, Hossein
发表日期	2024
ISSN	1471-2229
起始页码	24
结束页码	1
卷号	24 期号:1
英文摘要	Within a few decades, the species habitat was reshaped at an alarming rate followed by climate change, leading to mass extinction, especially for sensitive species. Species distribution models (SDMs), which estimate both present and future species distribution, have been extensively developed to investigate the impacts of climate change on species distribution and assess habitat suitability. In the West Asia essential oils of T. daenensis and T. kotschyanus include high amounts of thymol and carvacrol and are commonly used as herbal tea, spice, flavoring agents and medicinal plants. Therefore, this study aimed to model these Thymus species in Iran using the MaxEnt model under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for the years 2050 and 2070. The findings revealed that the mean temperature of the warmest quarter (bio10) was the most significant variable affecting the distribution of T. daenensis. In the case of T. kotschyanus, slope percentage was the primary influencing factor. The MaxEnt modeling also demonstrated excellent performance, as indicated by all the Area Under the Curve (AUC) values exceeding 0.9. Moreover, based on the projections, the two mentioned species are expected to undergo negative area changes in the coming years. These results can serve as a valuable achievement for developing adaptive management strategies aimed at enhancing protection and sustainable utilization in the context of global climate change.
英文关键词	Climate change; Future distribution; Species distribution models; Thymus genus
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Plant Sciences
WOS类目	Plant Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001200836200004
来源期刊	BMC PLANT BIOLOGY
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/307123
作者单位	Arak University; Shahid Beheshti University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hosseini, Naser,Ghorbanpour, Mansour,Mostafavi, Hossein. The influence of climate change on the future distribution of two Thymus species in Iran: MaxEnt model-based prediction[J],2024,24(1).
APA	Hosseini, Naser,Ghorbanpour, Mansour,&Mostafavi, Hossein.(2024).The influence of climate change on the future distribution of two Thymus species in Iran: MaxEnt model-based prediction.BMC PLANT BIOLOGY,24(1).
MLA	Hosseini, Naser,et al."The influence of climate change on the future distribution of two Thymus species in Iran: MaxEnt model-based prediction".BMC PLANT BIOLOGY 24.1(2024).