气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Climate change and La Niña increase the likelihood of the '720' extraordinary typhoon-rainstorm in Zhengzhou, China

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DOI	10.1002/joc.8386
	Climate change and La Niña increase the likelihood of the '720' extraordinary typhoon-rainstorm in Zhengzhou, China
	Wang, Wenyan; Yuan, Xing
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0899-8418
EISSN	1097-0088
起始页码	44
结束页码	5
卷号	44 期号:5
英文摘要	On 20 July, 2021, an extraordinary rainstorm occurred in Zhengzhou in Central-North China, which caused hundreds of deaths and serious property damages, and affected 14 million people. The compound anomalous atmospheric circulations were found to be responsible for the occurrence of the extraordinary rainstorm in Zhengzhou, but the influence of large-scale sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) and the contribution of climate change received less attention. This study conducts an attribution analysis based on atmospheric reanalysis and sea surface temperature (SST) observation data combined with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model simulation data. The results show that the return period for the extraordinary rainstorm was 250 years, which was caused by the interaction between the abnormally northerly shift of Western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH) that was associated with the negative SSTA over the tropical central-eastern Pacific (i.e., a moderate La Nina condition) and Typhoon In-fa and Typhoon Cempaka. A persistent convergence was formed over Zhengzhou by transporting a large amount of water vapour to hinterland. The lagged response of La Nina affected WNPSH and the rainband in China. The attribution analysis shows that climate change due to anthropogenic forcings such as greenhouse gas emissions increased the risk of such a rainstorm event by 12% compared to the conditions under the natural forcings. Under the combined effects of anthropogenic forcings and La Nina, the risk of occurrence increased 47% compared to the effect of natural forcings only on similar precipitation events. This study suggests a synergistic effect of climate change and large-scale tropical climate variability on compound extremes. Climate change due to anthropogenic forcings increases the risk of such event like the '7 center dot 20' Zhengzhou extraordinary typhoon-rainstorm by 12% compared to the natural forcings. image
英文关键词	attribution analysis; climate change; CMIP6; ENSO; extreme precipitation; impact
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001187811700001
来源期刊	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/307021
作者单位	Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology; Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang, Wenyan,Yuan, Xing. Climate change and La Niña increase the likelihood of the '720' extraordinary typhoon-rainstorm in Zhengzhou, China[J],2024,44(5).
APA	Wang, Wenyan,&Yuan, Xing.(2024).Climate change and La Niña increase the likelihood of the '720' extraordinary typhoon-rainstorm in Zhengzhou, China.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,44(5).
MLA	Wang, Wenyan,et al."Climate change and La Niña increase the likelihood of the '720' extraordinary typhoon-rainstorm in Zhengzhou, China".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 44.5(2024).