气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Premature Deaths Due To Heat Exposure: The Potential Effects of Neighborhood-Level Versus City-Level Acclimatization Within US Cities

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DOI	10.1029/2023GH000970
	Premature Deaths Due To Heat Exposure: The Potential Effects of Neighborhood-Level Versus City-Level Acclimatization Within US Cities
	Shindell, D.; Hunter, R.; Faluvegi, G.; Parsons, L.
发表日期	2024
ISSN	2471-1403
起始页码	8
结束页码	1
卷号	8 期号:1
英文摘要	For the population of a given US city, the risk of premature death associated with heat exposure increases as temperatures rise, but risks in hotter cities are generally lower than in cooler cities at equivalent temperatures due to factors such as acclimatization. Those living in especially hot neighborhoods within cities might therefore suffer much more than average if such adaptation is only at the city-wide level, whereas they might not experience greatly increased risk if adjustment is at the neighborhood level. To compare these possibilities, we use high spatial resolution temperature data to evaluated heat-related deaths assuming either adjustment at the city-wide or at the neighborhood scale in 10 large US cities. On average, we find that if inhabitants are adjusted to their local conditions, a neighborhood that was 10 degrees C hotter than a cooler one would experience only about 1.0-1.5 excess heat deaths per year per 100,000 persons. By contrast, if inhabitants are acclimatized to city-wide temperatures, the hotter neighborhood would experience about 15 excess deaths per year per 100,000 persons. Using idealized analyses, we demonstrate that current city-wide epidemiological data do not differentiate between these differing adjustments. Given the very large effects of assumptions about neighborhood-level acclimatization found here, as well as the fact that current literature is conflicting on the spatial scale of acclimatization, more neighborhood-level epidemiological data are urgently needed to determine the health impacts of variations in heat exposure within urban areas, better constrain projected changes, and inform mitigation efforts. Heat islands within urban areas cause some neighborhoods to be much hotter than others. However, epidemiological studies show that risk of premature death is generally lower in hot cities than in cooler cities based on city-wide average temperatures. Therefore it is not obvious if those living in hotter than average neighborhoods experience much greater risk of premature heat-related death than those in cooler areas, or if they will have adjusted to those conditions via physiological or behavior adaptation the way those in hotter cities have relative to those in cooler cities. We show that if inhabitants are adapted to their neighborhood's conditions, a heat island 10 degrees C hotter than a cooler are would experience only about 1.0-1.5 excess heat deaths per year per 100,000 persons. If inhabitants are acclimatized to city-wide temperatures rather than neighborhood temperatures, the hotter neighborhood would experience about 15 excess deaths per year per 100,000 persons, with a markedly different distribution of deaths across urban areas relative to the assumption of adaptation to neighborhood-level temperatures. These results show the need for better understanding of the spatial scale of acclimatization to heat to determine the areas most affected by projected heat increases and inform mitigation efforts. Neighborhood-level temperatures within cities can differ by as much as 10 degrees C, but acclimatization to neighborhood-level heat is unclearHeat-related deaths could be 10 times larger in hot neighborhoods if inhabitants are acclimatized to city-wide rather than local exposuresBetter understanding of acclimatization is needed to determine the utility of high-resolution temperature data and inform mitigation
英文关键词	heat island; acclimatization; heat-related death
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
WOS记录号	WOS:001134428100001
来源期刊	GEOHEALTH
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/306768
作者单位	Duke University; National Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA); NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Goddard Institute for Space Studies; Columbia University; Columbia University; Nature Conservancy
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Shindell, D.,Hunter, R.,Faluvegi, G.,et al. Premature Deaths Due To Heat Exposure: The Potential Effects of Neighborhood-Level Versus City-Level Acclimatization Within US Cities[J],2024,8(1).
APA	Shindell, D.,Hunter, R.,Faluvegi, G.,&Parsons, L..(2024).Premature Deaths Due To Heat Exposure: The Potential Effects of Neighborhood-Level Versus City-Level Acclimatization Within US Cities.GEOHEALTH,8(1).
MLA	Shindell, D.,et al."Premature Deaths Due To Heat Exposure: The Potential Effects of Neighborhood-Level Versus City-Level Acclimatization Within US Cities".GEOHEALTH 8.1(2024).