气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Anzali Wetland Crisis: Unraveling the Decline of Iran's Ecological Gem

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DOI	10.1029/2023JD039538
	Anzali Wetland Crisis: Unraveling the Decline of Iran's Ecological Gem
	Mahdian, M.; Noori, R.; Salamattalab, M. M.; Heggy, E.; Bateni, S. M.; Nohegar, A.; Hosseinzadeh, M.; Siadatmousavi, S. M.; Fadaei, M. R.; Abolfathi, S.
发表日期	2024
ISSN	2169-897X
EISSN	2169-8996
起始页码	129
结束页码	4
卷号	129 期号:4
英文摘要	The wetland loss rate in Iran is faster than the global average. Comprehending the shrinkage rate in Iranian wetlands and identifying the underlying drivers of these changes is essential for safeguarding their ecosystems' health and services. This study proposes a novel gray-box modeling framework to quantify the effects of climate change and anthropogenic activities on the wetlands, by combining process-based and machine learning models. The developed model is utilized to project the Anzali coastal wetland shrinkage by simulating the complex interaction between the meteorological, hydrological, anthropogenic and sea water level characteristics, and the changes in wetland water surface area. Our framework aggregates Soil and Water Assessment Tool model, the 12 General Circulation Models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, Landsat imagery, and the Long Short-Term Memory model to project the shrinkage of the wetland till 2100. A comprehensive range of climate and Land Use/Cover change scenarios are analyzed. The results show that wetland will seasonally desiccate in 2058, mainly due to increasing air temperature, reduction in precipitation and inflow, excessive sediment loading to the wetland, and decline in the Caspian Sea level. For optimistic scenarios, where no changes in the Caspian Sea level is considered, the wetland will gradually diminish and become a seasonal waterbody by 2100. The outcomes of this study highlight that the Anzali wetland desiccation has profound implications for the regional-scale ecological balance, ecosystem health and function, public health, and local economy. Robust environmental interventions and sustainable development strategies are urgently needed to mitigate the detrimental impacts of climate and anthropogenic drivers on the wetland. Wetlands, with a small footprint on our planet's land surface, are home to similar to 40% of the Earth's species. Despite the numerous benefits wetlands deliver to human life and the environment, they are facing significant threats during the Anthropocene, particularly by global warming. Iran's wetlands are experiencing a rapid disappearance, with shrinkage rates surpassing the global average. Iran is ranked as the second-worst country, after Greece, in terms of wetlands listed in the Montreux Record. The temporal shrinkage rate of the Anzali wetland, the most ecologically important site in Iran, is investigated under climate and land use/cover change scenarios. The water surface area of the wetland is projected to reach zero by spring 2058. If no changes occur in the Caspian Sea level, which is connected to the Anzali wetland, the wetland is projected to transit a seasonal water body by spring 2093. The desiccation of the wetland is attributed to increasing air temperature, decline in the Caspian Sea's water level, increase in sediment loads, and reduction in precipitation and inflow to the wetland. The Anzali wetland desiccation has profound implications for the regional-scale ecological balance, ecosystem health and function, public health, and local economy. A gray-box modeling framework is developed to project water surface area for wetlands The Anzali wetland desiccates between 2058 and 2062 in non-conservative scenarios In conservative scenarios, the Anzali wetland will transit a seasonal waterbody by 2100
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001159344400001
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/306667
作者单位	Iran University Science & Technology; University of Tehran; University of Tehran; University of Southern California; California Institute of Technology; National Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA); NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL); University of Hawaii System; University of Hawaii Manoa; University of Hawaii System; University of Hawaii Manoa; University of Warwick
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mahdian, M.,Noori, R.,Salamattalab, M. M.,et al. Anzali Wetland Crisis: Unraveling the Decline of Iran's Ecological Gem[J],2024,129(4).
APA	Mahdian, M..,Noori, R..,Salamattalab, M. M..,Heggy, E..,Bateni, S. M..,...&Abolfathi, S..(2024).Anzali Wetland Crisis: Unraveling the Decline of Iran's Ecological Gem.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,129(4).
MLA	Mahdian, M.,et al."Anzali Wetland Crisis: Unraveling the Decline of Iran's Ecological Gem".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 129.4(2024).