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DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107407
	Characterization of the future northeast monsoon rainfall based on the clustered climate zone under CMIP6 in Peninsular Malaysia
	Sa'adi, Zulfaqar; Alias, Nor Eliza; Yusop, Zulkifli; Hamed, Mohammed Magdy; Shukla, Prabhakar; Houmsi, Mohamad Rajab; Mohamad, Nur Athirah; Shiru, Mohammed Sanusi; Sa'adi, Nurzalikha; Muhammad, Mohd Khairul Idlan; Iqbal, Zafar; Banday, Umer Jeelanie
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0169-8095
EISSN	1873-2895
起始页码	304
卷号	304
英文摘要	The Northeast monsoon (NEM) exerts a significant influence on the climate system of Peninsular Malaysia (PM) and has profound implications for water resource management, flood control, and disaster preparedness in the region. This study employed CHIRPS rainfall data from 1981 to 2022 at a spatial resolution of 0.25 degrees to generate climate zones. The performance of global climate models (GCMs) in replicating monthly rainfall was evaluated using multiple statistical metrics, with the top-ranked ones being used for the generation of future projection downscaled ensemble models. The NEM months (November, December, January, February, and March) were used as input parameters to form clustered homogeneous groups using the Ward hierarchical method. The optimal number of climate zones was determined using the elbow method, silhouette width values, and spatial evaluation. Ultimately, a 7-cluster solution was chosen due to its consistency and meaningful cluster formation. The zones were categorized into two regions: the West Coast and the East Coast, based on their geographical location and distinctive monthly NEM rainfall patterns. The analysis of the probability distribution function (PDF) showed that rainfall in the West Coast region had a more spread-out pattern with varying amounts, while rainfall in the East Coast region was more concentrated and consistent. The Northeast climate zone received the highest rainfall, attributed to its proximity to the South China Sea, mountainous areas, and the NEM convergence zone. In contrast, the Northwest and Lower Central-West climate zones received the lowest rainfall due to the rain shadow effect, limited moisture availability, and distance from major moisture sources. The CMCC-ESM2, CMCC-CM2-SR5, EC-Earth3, and CanESM5 consistently ranked among the highest performing models. After linear scaling bias correction, validated GCMs showed significant improvements, with improvements in MAE, NRMSE, PBIAS, RSR, NSE, MD, CP, R2, and KGE by 11-45%, 15-47%, 96-100%, 15-47%, 10-79%, 5-37%, 68-113%, 11-73%, and 9-51%, respectively. Analysis of NEM season rainfall patterns across climate zones indicated consistent mid-future increases for the Northwest and Lower Central-West zones (12.4-19.8%) and the Upper Central-West and Southwest zones (0.2-5.4%) across all scenarios. In the far-future, the Southeast zone saw an overall increase in rainfall (4.9 -11.4%), while the Central -West zone exhibited mixed results (-4.0 to 5.6%). The results also highlighted spatial variability and the need to consider specific climate zones when assessing the impacts of climate change on the NEM, emphasizing the importance of incorporating these pro- jections into long-term planning and decision -making processes.
英文关键词	CHIRPS; CMIP6; Northeast monsoon; Peninsular Malaysia; Downscaling; Ward Clustering
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001226982400001
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/306352
作者单位	Universiti Teknologi Malaysia; Universiti Teknologi Malaysia; Egyptian Knowledge Bank (EKB); Arab Academy for Science, Technology & Maritime Transport; Indian Institute of Technology System (IIT System); Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) - Delhi; Universiti Teknologi Malaysia; Al-Ayen University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sa'adi, Zulfaqar,Alias, Nor Eliza,Yusop, Zulkifli,et al. Characterization of the future northeast monsoon rainfall based on the clustered climate zone under CMIP6 in Peninsular Malaysia[J],2024,304.
APA	Sa'adi, Zulfaqar.,Alias, Nor Eliza.,Yusop, Zulkifli.,Hamed, Mohammed Magdy.,Shukla, Prabhakar.,...&Banday, Umer Jeelanie.(2024).Characterization of the future northeast monsoon rainfall based on the clustered climate zone under CMIP6 in Peninsular Malaysia.ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,304.
MLA	Sa'adi, Zulfaqar,et al."Characterization of the future northeast monsoon rainfall based on the clustered climate zone under CMIP6 in Peninsular Malaysia".ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH 304(2024).