气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The Projected Poleward Shift of Tropical Cyclogenesis at a Global Scale Under Climate Change in MRI-AGCM3.2H

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DOI	10.1029/2023GL107189
	The Projected Poleward Shift of Tropical Cyclogenesis at a Global Scale Under Climate Change in MRI-AGCM3.2H
	Cao, Xi; Watanabe, Masahiro; Wu, Renguang; Chen, Wen; Sun, Ying; Yan, Qing; Wang, Pengfei; Deng, Difei; Wu, Liang
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0094-8276
EISSN	1944-8007
起始页码	51
结束页码	3
卷号	51 期号:3
英文摘要	Future climate projections suggest a poleward shift of the maximum intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific. However, the global nature of the latitudinal change in TC genesis under global warming remains poorly understood. We show, using large-ensemble high-resolution atmospheric model simulations (d4PDF) with four warming scenarios, that the poleward shift is a robust change over the globe, attributable to the weakening of the Hadley circulation. The weakened ascent driven by the upper-tropospheric warming suppresses the TC genesis within 5 degrees-20 degrees latitudes, whereas the weakened descent enhances the TC genesis in the poleward latitudes. We further estimate the poleward shift of TC genesis to emerge at the 2 K global warming over the Arabian Sea, South Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and at the 4 K warming over the North Pacific. The present results underscore the potential for increasing social and economic risks associated with TCs at higher latitudes. Climate models have projected a decrease in TC genesis frequency in future warming. However, the global nature of the latitudinal change in TC genesis under global warming remains uncertain partly due to insufficient resolution as well as the ensemble size of climate model simulations. We show a global feature of the robust poleward shift of the TC genesis during the active seasons of both hemispheres scaled with the global warming level, which can be attributed to the weakening of the Hadley circulation. The weakened ascending branch of the Hadley circulation, driven by the increased upper tropospheric warming, potentially hinders TC genesis within 5 degrees-20 degrees latitudes. Conversely, the weakened descending branch of the Hadley circulation enhances the likelihood of TC genesis within 20 degrees-35 degrees latitudes. We further estimate that the signal of TC genesis is expected to emerge over high latitudes of the Arabian Sea, South Atlantic and South Pacific Oceans at the 2 K warming and at the 4 K warming over the North Pacific. The present analyses have significant implications not only for assessing the reliability of future TC-related changes in climate models but also for estimating the increased TC-related hazards at higher latitudes under global warming. We project a global feature of the robust poleward shift of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis during active seasons of both hemispheres More TC genesis at high latitudes can be attributed to the weakening of the Hadley circulation Poleward shift of TC genesis emerges at 2 K warming over Arabian Sea, South Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and at 4 K warming over North Pacific
英文关键词	TC genesis; poleward shift; time of emergence; global warming
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Geology
WOS类目	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS记录号	WOS:001155471000001
来源期刊	GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/306304
作者单位	Chinese Academy of Sciences; Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CAS; University of Tokyo; Zhejiang University; Yunnan University; China Meteorological Administration; Chinese Academy of Sciences; Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CAS; University of New South Wales Sydney
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Cao, Xi,Watanabe, Masahiro,Wu, Renguang,et al. The Projected Poleward Shift of Tropical Cyclogenesis at a Global Scale Under Climate Change in MRI-AGCM3.2H[J],2024,51(3).
APA	Cao, Xi.,Watanabe, Masahiro.,Wu, Renguang.,Chen, Wen.,Sun, Ying.,...&Wu, Liang.(2024).The Projected Poleward Shift of Tropical Cyclogenesis at a Global Scale Under Climate Change in MRI-AGCM3.2H.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,51(3).
MLA	Cao, Xi,et al."The Projected Poleward Shift of Tropical Cyclogenesis at a Global Scale Under Climate Change in MRI-AGCM3.2H".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 51.3(2024).