气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Subsidizing extensive cattle production in the European Union has major implications for global agricultural trade and climate change

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DOI	10.1016/j.jclepro.2024.141074
	Subsidizing extensive cattle production in the European Union has major implications for global agricultural trade and climate change
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0959-6526
EISSN	1879-1786
起始页码	448
卷号	448
英文摘要	Pastureland maintenance is seen as a land-based measure to reduce dependency on feed concentrates and mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from livestock production in the EU, while providing other ecosystems services. This paper assesses potential market-mediated impacts, including global Land Use Change (LUC) and GHG emissions, from increased subsidies to pasture-based livestock production in the EU. A tax recycling strategy (TRS) is simulated against a baseline up to 2030 under the shared socioeconomic pathway 2 (SSP2). This implies a budget-neutral increase in the level of pasture subsidies in individual Member States, as land subsidies for other cropping activities decrease. We employ the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model GTAP in its recursivedynamic version, GTAP-RDEM, extended with the Multi-Regional Input-Output (MRIO) database FABIO to disaggregate agri-food sectors from 21 to 31. This approach allows considering price- and income-dependent feedbacks when assessing long-run changes in the global economy, improving the sectoral resolution relative to GTAP v10. The policy increases pastureland areas and cattle production in almost all EU Member States, whereas cropland and crop production decrease, causing significant changes across EU agri-food markets. Crop prices increase, leading to the reduced output of intensive animal production sectors, mainly pig and poultry. Cropland areas decrease and most EU countries increase imports of grain, oilseeds, and cakes, essentially soybean cake from Brazil and North America. While GHG emissions decrease in those EU countries where pasturelands expand mainly at the cost of croplands, GHG emissions increase in those countries where pastureland expansion comes with forest loss. As a result, net GHG emissions increase in the EU-27 in 2030 (+2.49 Mt CO2-eq). Emissions from LUC in major non-EU grain- and oilseed-exporting countries increase, e.g., by 102.52 Mt CO2-eq in Brazil and by 129.17 Mt CO2-eq in North America. The simulated policy shows that promoting extensive livestock per se does not meet the objectives of the Common Agricultural Policy and the EU Green Deal. The TRS should be complemented with policies to foster crop diversification and promote the use of domestic feed sources (e.g., legumes) to effectively ensure feed self-sufficiency and that extensive cattle production in the EU does not lead to deforestation in carbon-rich countries.
英文关键词	Pastureland; Cattle; Land use change; Greenhouse gas; CGE; Livestock
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Green & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Engineering, Environmental ; Environmental Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001208779900001
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/305860
作者单位	University of Bonn; Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3); University of Basque Country; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA); Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; Vienna University of Economics & Business
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	. Subsidizing extensive cattle production in the European Union has major implications for global agricultural trade and climate change[J],2024,448.
APA	(2024).Subsidizing extensive cattle production in the European Union has major implications for global agricultural trade and climate change.JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION,448.
MLA	"Subsidizing extensive cattle production in the European Union has major implications for global agricultural trade and climate change".JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION 448(2024).

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