气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Simulation and attribution analysis of terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage of Hainan Island from 2015 to 2050

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170348
	Simulation and attribution analysis of terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage of Hainan Island from 2015 to 2050
	Wu, Wenyin; Huang, Zanhui; Huang, Zhongyi; Zhang, Jie; Wang, Shisheng; Fang, Mengyang; Yang, Huai; Lu, Hua; Guo, Guoling; Liu, Wenjie
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0048-9697
EISSN	1879-1026
起始页码	917
卷号	917
英文摘要	Terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage (TECS) could significantly affect the concentration of atmospheric CO2, which is critical for climate change prediction. Along these lines, the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs model was employed to determine the TECS of Hainan Island (HN) from 2015 to 2050 accurately. Besides, the Future Land -use Simulation model combined with natural and anthropogenic factors was used to forecast the land -use types from 2025 to 2050 in HN by considering different Shared-socioeconomic pathwayRrepresentative concentration pathway (SSP-RCP) scenarios. Finally, the geographical detector explored the influence mechanism concerning the TECS. Under the SSP1-RCP1.9 scenario, the TECS of HN will be gradually increased to 388.10 million tons in 2050, mainly due to the increase in forest areas and the fact that the majority of grassland in the western part of HN is being converted into forest. Under different SSP-RCP scenarios except for SSP1-RCP1.9, HN's TECS is expected to gradually decrease from 2015 to 2050, mainly due to the loss of grassland and forest in coastal low-altitude areas. From the single/pair factor perspective influenced mechanism concerning the TECS, the elevation (DEM) and DEM pi Slope were found to be the dominant single/pair factor under the SSP1-RCP1.9, SSP1-RCP2.6 and SSP2-RCP4.5 scenarios. The least distance to residential area (LDP) and LDP pi LDR (i.e. LDP and least distance to roads or railways) were found to be the dominant factors under the SSP3-RCP7.0, SSP4-RCP3.4, SSP4-RCP6.0, SSP5-RCP3.4 and SSP5-RCP8.5 scenarios. Besides, the pair factors provided a higher determinant power for TECS than a single factor. Given the results of the TECS and the influence mechanism concerning the TECS under different SSP-RCP scenarios, we suggest reasonably planning the transportation network and limiting the disorderly expansion of construction land.
英文关键词	Land -use simulation; Land use and cover change; Shared-socioeconomic pathway; Rrepresentative concentration pathway sce; narios; Terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage; Hainan Island; attribution analysis
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001178292100001
来源期刊	SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/304914
作者单位	Hainan University; China Geological Survey; Jiangxi Agricultural University; Anhui Agricultural University; Hainan University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wu, Wenyin,Huang, Zanhui,Huang, Zhongyi,et al. Simulation and attribution analysis of terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage of Hainan Island from 2015 to 2050[J],2024,917.
APA	Wu, Wenyin.,Huang, Zanhui.,Huang, Zhongyi.,Zhang, Jie.,Wang, Shisheng.,...&Liu, Wenjie.(2024).Simulation and attribution analysis of terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage of Hainan Island from 2015 to 2050.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,917.
MLA	Wu, Wenyin,et al."Simulation and attribution analysis of terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage of Hainan Island from 2015 to 2050".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 917(2024).