气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): On the attribution of historical and future dryness/wetness changes in China incorporating surface resistance response to elevated CO2

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DOI	10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104380
	On the attribution of historical and future dryness/wetness changes in China incorporating surface resistance response to elevated CO2
	Sun, Shanlei; Chai, Rongfan; Zhang, Yifang; Wang, Jia; Bi, Zaoying; Li, Jinjian; Zhou, Botao; Chen, Haishan
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0921-8181
EISSN	1872-6364
起始页码	234
卷号	234
英文摘要	Considering impacts of elevated CO2-induced increases in surface resistance on potential evapotranspiration (PET), to revisit and attribute the changes in dryness/wetness is necessary for accurately understanding evolutions of the historical and future drying and wetting conditions. Therefore, we comprehensively investigated the historical (1965-2011) and future (2019-2098; including four scenarios) annual dryness/wetness changes through incorporating CO(2 )effect into the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations' report 56 (FAO-56) Penman-Monteith and the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index. During the historical and future periods, China experienced significant wetting (p < 0.05), and moreover the wetting trends prevailed across most (> 70%) of China, especially for each future scenario with >50% of China with significant (p < 0.05) wetting. A joint-solution method with multiple sensitivity experiments was used to separate each driving factor's contribution to annual dryness/wetness changes. Results showed that for the whole China increased precipitation was responsible for the historical and future wetting trends. However, the determinant factors varied spatially. Across China, the historical major contributors were precipitation, wind speed, air temperature and net solar radiation, totally accounting for 97.6% of China. The annual dryness/wetness across China could be attributed to precipitation, air temperature and net solar radiation for SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5, but precipitation and air temperature for SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. Moreover, through comparing attributions of the annual dryness/ wetness changes with and without CO(2 )effect, we found that the CO(2 )effect could change the determinant factors mainly in eastern China, and the corresponding area percentages increased with the gas emissions, particularly for SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 with the largest values above 42%. This finding highlighted that the CO2 effect should be considered when conducting attribution analysis of the changes in dryness/wetness.
英文关键词	Dryness/wetness changes; CO2 effect; Surface resistance; Self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index; Attribution analysis; China
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Physical Geography ; Geology
WOS类目	Geography, Physical ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS记录号	WOS:001202405400001
来源期刊	GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/304150
作者单位	Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology; Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology; Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology; Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology; Chengdu University of Information Technology
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sun, Shanlei,Chai, Rongfan,Zhang, Yifang,et al. On the attribution of historical and future dryness/wetness changes in China incorporating surface resistance response to elevated CO2[J],2024,234.
APA	Sun, Shanlei.,Chai, Rongfan.,Zhang, Yifang.,Wang, Jia.,Bi, Zaoying.,...&Chen, Haishan.(2024).On the attribution of historical and future dryness/wetness changes in China incorporating surface resistance response to elevated CO2.GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE,234.
MLA	Sun, Shanlei,et al."On the attribution of historical and future dryness/wetness changes in China incorporating surface resistance response to elevated CO2".GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE 234(2024).