气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Kilometre-scale simulations over Fennoscandia reveal a large loss of tundra due to climate warming

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DOI	10.5194/bg-21-1093-2024
	Kilometre-scale simulations over Fennoscandia reveal a large loss of tundra due to climate warming
	Lagergren, Fredrik; Bjork, Robert G.; Andersson, Camilla; Belusic, Danijel; Bjorkman, Mats P.; Kjellstrom, Erik; Lind, Petter; Lindstedt, David; Olenius, Tinja; Pleijel, Hakan; Rosqvist, Gunhild; Miller, Paul A.
发表日期	2024
ISSN	1726-4170
EISSN	1726-4189
起始页码	21
结束页码	5
卷号	21 期号:5
英文摘要	The Fennoscandian boreal and mountain regions harbour a wide range of vegetation types, from boreal forest to high alpine tundra and barren soils. The area is facing a rise in air temperature above the global average and changes in temperature and precipitation patterns. This is expected to alter the Fennoscandian vegetation composition and change the conditions for areal land use such as forestry, tourism and reindeer husbandry. In this study we used a unique high-resolution (3 km) climate scenario with considerable warming resulting from strongly increasing carbon dioxide emissions to investigate how climate change can alter the vegetation composition, biodiversity and availability of suitable reindeer forage. Using a dynamical vegetation model, including a new implementation of potential reindeer grazing, resulted in simulated vegetation maps of unprecedented high resolution for such a long time period and spatial extent. The results were evaluated at the local scale using vegetation inventories and for the whole area against satellite-based vegetation maps. A deeper analysis of vegetation shifts related to statistics of threatened species was performed in six hotspot areas containing records of rare and threatened species. In this high-emission scenario, the simulations show dramatic shifts in the vegetation composition, accelerating at the end of the century. Alarmingly, the results suggest the southern mountain alpine region in Sweden will be completely covered by forests at the end of the 21st century, making preservation of many rare and threatened species impossible. In the northern alpine regions, most vegetation types will persist but shift to higher elevations with reduced areal extent, endangering vulnerable species. Simulated potential for reindeer grazing indicates latitudinal differences, with higher potential in the south in the current climate. In the future these differences will diminish, as the potentials will increase in the north, especially for the summer grazing grounds. These combined results suggest significant shifts in vegetation composition over the present century for this scenario, with large implications for nature conservation, reindeer husbandry and forestry.
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology
WOS类目	Ecology ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS记录号	WOS:001190510100001
来源期刊	BIOGEOSCIENCES
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/303923
作者单位	Lund University; University of Gothenburg; University of Gothenburg; Swedish Meteorological & Hydrological Institute; University of Zagreb; University of Gothenburg; Stockholm University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lagergren, Fredrik,Bjork, Robert G.,Andersson, Camilla,et al. Kilometre-scale simulations over Fennoscandia reveal a large loss of tundra due to climate warming[J],2024,21(5).
APA	Lagergren, Fredrik.,Bjork, Robert G..,Andersson, Camilla.,Belusic, Danijel.,Bjorkman, Mats P..,...&Miller, Paul A..(2024).Kilometre-scale simulations over Fennoscandia reveal a large loss of tundra due to climate warming.BIOGEOSCIENCES,21(5).
MLA	Lagergren, Fredrik,et al."Kilometre-scale simulations over Fennoscandia reveal a large loss of tundra due to climate warming".BIOGEOSCIENCES 21.5(2024).