气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The cumulative niche approach: A framework to assess the performance of ecological niche model projections

CCPortal

DOI	10.1002/ece3.11060
	The cumulative niche approach: A framework to assess the performance of ecological niche model projections
	Arle, Eduardo; Knight, Tiffany Marie; Jimenez-Munoz, Marina; Biancolini, Dino; Belmaker, Jonathan; Meyer, Carsten
发表日期	2024
ISSN	2045-7758
起始页码	14
结束页码	2
卷号	14 期号:2
英文摘要	Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) are often used to project species distributions within alien ranges and in future climatic scenarios. However, ENMs depend on species-environment equilibrium, which may be absent for actively expanding species. We present a novel framework to estimate whether species have reached environmental equilibrium in their native and alien ranges. The method is based on the estimation of niche breadth with the accumulation of species occurrences. An asymptote will indicate exhaustive knowledge of the realised niches. We demonstrate the CNA framework for 26 species of mammals, amphibians, and birds. Possible outcomes of the framework include: (1) There is enough data to quantify the native and alien realised niches, allowing us to calculate niche expansion between the native and alien ranges, also indicating that ENMs can be reliably projected to new environmental conditions. (2) The data in the native range is not adequate but an asymptote is reached in the alien realised niche, indicating low confidence in our ability to evaluate niche expansion in the alien range but high confidence in model projections to new environmental conditions within the alien range. (3) There is enough data to quantify the native realised niche, but not enough knowledge about the alien realised niche, hindering the reliability of projections beyond sampled conditions. (4) Both the native and alien ranges do not reach an asymptote, and thus few robust conclusions about the species' niche or future projections can be made. Our framework can be used to detect species' environmental equilibrium in both the native and alien ranges, to quantify changes in the realised niche during the invasion processes, and to estimate the likely accuracy of model projections to new environmental conditions. The Cumulative Niche Approach: a novel framework to estimate the predictive power of Ecological Niche Model projections. Our theoretical framework allows to quantify changes in the realised niche during invasion processes and to estimate the likely accuracy of model projections to new environmental conditions.image
英文关键词	alien species; climate change; ecological modelling; ecological niche models; invasion biology; model projections; niche calculation; species distribution modelling; species range
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Evolutionary Biology
WOS类目	Ecology ; Evolutionary Biology
WOS记录号	WOS:001169247300001
来源期刊	ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/303803
作者单位	Tel Aviv University; Helmholtz Association; Helmholtz Center for Environmental Research (UFZ); Martin Luther University Halle Wittenberg; Helmholtz Association; Helmholtz-Center Munich - German Research Center for Environmental Health; Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR); Tel Aviv University; Leipzig University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Arle, Eduardo,Knight, Tiffany Marie,Jimenez-Munoz, Marina,et al. The cumulative niche approach: A framework to assess the performance of ecological niche model projections[J],2024,14(2).
APA	Arle, Eduardo,Knight, Tiffany Marie,Jimenez-Munoz, Marina,Biancolini, Dino,Belmaker, Jonathan,&Meyer, Carsten.(2024).The cumulative niche approach: A framework to assess the performance of ecological niche model projections.ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION,14(2).
MLA	Arle, Eduardo,et al."The cumulative niche approach: A framework to assess the performance of ecological niche model projections".ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION 14.2(2024).