气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Analysing spatio-temporal drought characteristics and copula-based return period in Indian Gangetic Basin (1901-2021)

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DOI	10.1007/s11356-024-32286-1
	Analysing spatio-temporal drought characteristics and copula-based return period in Indian Gangetic Basin (1901-2021)
	Bera, Debarati; Dutta, Dipanwita
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0944-1344
EISSN	1614-7499
英文摘要	Uncertainty and uneven distribution of monsoonal rainfall and its consequences on crop production is a matter of serious concern in India, specifically, in the Indo-Gangetic plain region. In this study, drought patterns were investigated through standardised precipitation index (SPI) of varying timescales, using the India Meteorological Department (IMD) precipitation data (1901-2021). We analysed the spatio-temporal pattern of different drought characteristics (frequency, duration, severity, intensity) of the Indian Gangetic basin using run theory. The bivariate copula method has been incorporated to combine two drought properties (severity and duration). Copula integrates multivariate distribution and considers the dependency rate among the variables. The five most widely used copulas from various copula families, elliptical (normal, t-copula) and Archimedean (Clayton, Gumbel, Frank), were estimated for modelling, and the best fit copula was selected. The study revealed that seasonal drought is more frequent and intense in the Upper and Middle Gangetic Plain, whereas annual drought is quite scattered in nature. It is worthy to mention that downward drought trends were observed in this agricultural belts significantly after 1965; specifically, in the Upper, Middle, and Trans Gangetic Plain regions. With increasing drought duration and severity, the drought return period raised, but the frequency decreased gradually. Most of the droughts characterised by less duration and severity occurred with a return period below 10 years for the whole region. The major 100 + years return period droughts were to be found after 1960 and their frequencies were significantly higher after 2000. The most recent remarkable droughts with more than 100 years of return occurred during 2008-2011 and 2016-2018 in the Upper and Middle Gangetic plains, whereas in the Lower Gangetic plain, a hundred-year return period drought was occurred during 2010-2013. This study provides agroclimatic-zones-wise significant information of drought characteristics and its nature of occurrence in the Indian Ganga Basin. The results enhance the understanding of drought management and formulation of adaptive strategies to mitigate the adverse impact of droughts.
英文关键词	IMD precipitation data; SPI; VCI; Run theory; Copula theory
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001173086700007
来源期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/303800
作者单位	Vidyasagar University; Vidyasagar University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bera, Debarati,Dutta, Dipanwita. Analysing spatio-temporal drought characteristics and copula-based return period in Indian Gangetic Basin (1901-2021)[J],2024.
APA	Bera, Debarati,&Dutta, Dipanwita.(2024).Analysing spatio-temporal drought characteristics and copula-based return period in Indian Gangetic Basin (1901-2021).ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH.
MLA	Bera, Debarati,et al."Analysing spatio-temporal drought characteristics and copula-based return period in Indian Gangetic Basin (1901-2021)".ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH (2024).