气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Reductions in premature deaths from heat and particulate matter air pollution in South Asia, China, and the United States under decarbonization

CCPortal

DOI	10.1073/pnas.2312832120
	Reductions in premature deaths from heat and particulate matter air pollution in South Asia, China, and the United States under decarbonization
	Shindell, Drew; Faluvegi, Greg; Nagamoto, Emily; Parsons, Luke; Zhang, Yuqiang
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0027-8424
EISSN	1091-6490
起始页码	121
结束页码	5
卷号	121 期号:5
英文摘要	Following a sustainable development pathway designed to keep warming below 2 degrees C will benefit human health. We quantify premature deaths attributable to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air pollution and heat exposures for China, South Asia, and the United States using projections from multiple climate models under high- and low-emission scenarios. Projected changes in premature deaths are typically dominated by population aging, primarily reflecting increased longevity leading to greater sensitivity to environmental risks. Changes in PM2.5 exposure typically have small impacts on premature deaths under a high-emission scenario but provide substantial benefits under a low-emission scenario. PM2.5-attributable deaths increase in South Asia throughout the century under both scenarios but shift to decreases by late century in China, and US values decrease throughout the century. In contrast, heat exposure increases under both scenarios and combines with population aging to drive projected increases in deaths in all countries. Despite population aging, combined PM2.5- and heat-related deaths decrease under the low-emission scenario by similar to 2.4 million per year by midcentury and similar to 2.9 million by century's end, with similar to 3% and similar to 21% of these reductions from heat, respectively. Intermodel variations in exposure projections generally lead to uncertainties of <40% except for US and China heat impacts. Health benefits of low emissions are larger from reduced heat exposure than improved air quality by the late 2090s in the United States. In contrast, in South and East Asia, the PM2.5-related benefits are largest throughout the century, and their valuation exceeds the cost of decarbonization, especially in China, over the next 30 y.
英文关键词	decarbonization; air pollution; heat exposure; climate change
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
WOS类目	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001167416400001
来源期刊	PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/303589
作者单位	Duke University; Columbia University; National Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA); NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Goddard Institute for Space Studies; Shandong University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Shindell, Drew,Faluvegi, Greg,Nagamoto, Emily,et al. Reductions in premature deaths from heat and particulate matter air pollution in South Asia, China, and the United States under decarbonization[J],2024,121(5).
APA	Shindell, Drew,Faluvegi, Greg,Nagamoto, Emily,Parsons, Luke,&Zhang, Yuqiang.(2024).Reductions in premature deaths from heat and particulate matter air pollution in South Asia, China, and the United States under decarbonization.PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,121(5).
MLA	Shindell, Drew,et al."Reductions in premature deaths from heat and particulate matter air pollution in South Asia, China, and the United States under decarbonization".PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 121.5(2024).