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DOI	10.5194/nhess-24-973-2024
	Thresholds for estuarine compound flooding using a combined hydrodynamic-statistical modelling approach
	Lyddon, Charlotte; Chien, Nguyen; Vasilopoulos, Grigorios; Ridgill, Michael; Moradian, Sogol; Olbert, Agnieszka; Coulthard, Thomas; Barkwith, Andrew; Robins, Peter
发表日期	2024
ISSN	1561-8633
EISSN	1684-9981
起始页码	24
结束页码	3
卷号	24 期号:3
英文摘要	Estuarine compound flooding can happen when extreme sea level and river discharges occur concurrently, or in close succession, inundating low-lying coastal regions. Such events are hard to predict and amplify the hazard. Recent UK storms, including Storm Desmond (2015) and Ciara (2020), have highlighted the vulnerability of mountainous Atlantic-facing catchments to the impacts of compound flooding including risk to life and short- and long-term socio-economic damages. To improve prediction and early warning of compound flooding, combined sea and river thresholds need to be established. In this study, observational data and numerical modelling were used to reconstruct the historic flood record of an estuary particularly vulnerable to compound flooding (Conwy, North Wales). The record was used to develop a method for identifying combined sea level and river discharge thresholds for flooding using idealised simulations and joint-probability analyses. The results show how flooding extent responds to increasing total water level and river discharge, with notable amplification in flood extent due to the compounding drivers in some circumstances, and sensitivity ( similar to 7 %) due to a 3 h time lag between the drivers. The influence of storm surge magnitude (as a component of total water level) on the flooding extent was only important for scenarios with minor flooding. There was variability as to when and where compound flooding occurred; it was most likely under moderate sea and river conditions (e.g. 60th-70th and 30th-50th percentiles) and only in the middle-estuary zone. For such cases, joint-probability analysis is important for establishing compound flood risk behaviour. Elsewhere in the estuary, either the sea state (lower estuary) or river flow (upper estuary) dominated the hazard, and single-value probability analysis is sufficient. These methods can be applied to estuaries worldwide to identify site-specific thresholds for flooding to support emergency response and long-term coastal management plans.
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS类目	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS记录号	WOS:001190637100001
来源期刊	NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/303330
作者单位	University of Liverpool; University of Edinburgh; University of Hull; Bangor University; Ollscoil na Gaillimhe-University of Galway; UK Research & Innovation (UKRI); Natural Environment Research Council (NERC); NERC British Geological Survey
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lyddon, Charlotte,Chien, Nguyen,Vasilopoulos, Grigorios,et al. Thresholds for estuarine compound flooding using a combined hydrodynamic-statistical modelling approach[J],2024,24(3).
APA	Lyddon, Charlotte.,Chien, Nguyen.,Vasilopoulos, Grigorios.,Ridgill, Michael.,Moradian, Sogol.,...&Robins, Peter.(2024).Thresholds for estuarine compound flooding using a combined hydrodynamic-statistical modelling approach.NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES,24(3).
MLA	Lyddon, Charlotte,et al."Thresholds for estuarine compound flooding using a combined hydrodynamic-statistical modelling approach".NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES 24.3(2024).