气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): 'Kesho' Scenario Development for Supporting Water-Energy Food Security under Future Conditions in Zanzibar

CCPortal

DOI	10.3390/land13020195
	'Kesho' Scenario Development for Supporting Water-Energy Food Security under Future Conditions in Zanzibar
	Newman, Rebecca J. S.; Enns, Charis; Capitani, Claudia; Thorn, Jessica P. R.; Courtney-Mustaphi, Colin J.; Buckton, Sam J.; Om, Eugyen Suzanne; Fazey, Ioan; Haji, Tahir A.; Nchimbi, Aziza Y.; Kariuki, Rebecca W.; Marchant, Robert A.
发表日期	2024
EISSN	2073-445X
起始页码	13
结束页码	2
卷号	13 期号:2
英文摘要	Social-ecological interactions mediate water-energy-food security in small developing islands, but community-scale insights are underrepresented in nexus research. These interactions are dynamic in their response to environmental and anthropogenic pressures and need to be understood to inform sustainable land use planning into the future. This study centered on bringing together diverse stakeholders to explore water-energy-food futures using the Kesho (meaning tomorrow in Kiswahili) scenario tool for two of the largest islands that comprise the Zanzibar Archipelago. The methodology comprised four core stages: (1) exploration of how past drivers of change impacted water-energy-food security; (2) modeling of a Business as Usual Scenario for land cover change; (3) narrative development to describe alternative futures for 2030 based on themes developed at the community scale; and (4) predictions about how narratives would shape land cover and its implications for the nexus. These results were used to model alternate land cover scenarios in TerrSet IDRISI (v. 18.31) and produce visual representations of expected change. Findings demonstrated that deforestation, saltwater incursion, and a reduction in permanent waterbodies were projected by 2030 in a Business as Usual Scenario. Three alternative scenario narratives were developed, these included Adaptation, Ecosystem Management, and Settlement Planning. The results demonstrate that the effectiveness of actions under the scenario options differ between the islands, indicating the importance of understanding the suitability of national policies across considered scales. Synergies across the alternative scenario narratives also emerged, including integrated approaches for managing environmental change, community participation in decision making, effective protection of forests, cultural sensitivity to settlement planning, and poverty alleviation. These synergies could be used to plan strategic action towards effectively strengthening water-energy-food security in Zanzibar.
英文关键词	livelihoods; nexus; climate change; development; ecosystems; western Indian ocean
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Environmental Studies
WOS记录号	WOS:001172350100001
来源期刊	LAND
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/303072
作者单位	University of York - UK; University of Manchester; University of St Andrews; University of Basel; Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Newman, Rebecca J. S.,Enns, Charis,Capitani, Claudia,et al. 'Kesho' Scenario Development for Supporting Water-Energy Food Security under Future Conditions in Zanzibar[J],2024,13(2).
APA	Newman, Rebecca J. S..,Enns, Charis.,Capitani, Claudia.,Thorn, Jessica P. R..,Courtney-Mustaphi, Colin J..,...&Marchant, Robert A..(2024).'Kesho' Scenario Development for Supporting Water-Energy Food Security under Future Conditions in Zanzibar.LAND,13(2).
MLA	Newman, Rebecca J. S.,et al."'Kesho' Scenario Development for Supporting Water-Energy Food Security under Future Conditions in Zanzibar".LAND 13.2(2024).