气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future projections of compound temperature and precipitation extremes and corresponding population exposure over global land

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104427
	Future projections of compound temperature and precipitation extremes and corresponding population exposure over global land
	Yang, Yang; Zhao, Na
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0921-8181
EISSN	1872-6364
起始页码	236
卷号	236
英文摘要	Extreme climate events are hotspots in global change. However, research on the changes in future compound events and population exposure is still limited. Leveraging from the data of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), this paper aims to analyze the temporal and spatial changes of global compound temperature and precipitation extreme events in the future. We also predict the risk of population exposure and quantify the contribution of different factors to exposure. The results show that: (1) In the next 80 years, compound hot-dry event (CHDE) will increase at a rate of 0.02, 0.03, and 0.08 days per decade under the three scenarios of SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively. By comparison, compound hot-humidity event (CHHE) shows a downward trend under the three scenarios, with a downward rate of 0.01, 0.02, and 0.11 days per decade, respectively. (2) Under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios, CHDE and CHHE have two or more mutation points. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, CHDE shows a significant upward and CHHE shows a significant downward trend in the middle and late 21st century. These two indices exhibit periodic changes in all three scenarios (3) South Asia, West Asia, and Northeast Africa have higher CHDE values, while regions with higher CHHE values are located in North Asia and Greenland. (4) Climate change is a major factor affecting population exposure. For CHDE, climate, population, and their synergistic effects contribute about 75%, 20%, and 5% to the exposure, respectively. For CHHE, the contributions of these three factors are 85%, 10%, and 5% respectively. These findings provide scientific guidance for the rational formulation of population policies, the effective avoidance of climate disaster risks and the protection of human health.
英文关键词	Compound extreme climate events; Spatio-temporal variations; Exposure; Global land
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Physical Geography ; Geology
WOS类目	Geography, Physical ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS记录号	WOS:001217740900001
来源期刊	GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/303014
作者单位	Chinese Academy of Sciences; Institute of Geographic Sciences & Natural Resources Research, CAS; Chinese Academy of Sciences; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, CAS
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yang, Yang,Zhao, Na. Future projections of compound temperature and precipitation extremes and corresponding population exposure over global land[J],2024,236.
APA	Yang, Yang,&Zhao, Na.(2024).Future projections of compound temperature and precipitation extremes and corresponding population exposure over global land.GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE,236.
MLA	Yang, Yang,et al."Future projections of compound temperature and precipitation extremes and corresponding population exposure over global land".GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE 236(2024).