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| DOI | 10.1016/j.techsoc.2024.102505 |
| In search of better methods for the longitudinal assessment of tech-derived X-risks: How five leading scenario planning efforts can help | |
| Undheim, Trond Arne | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| ISSN | 0160-791X |
| EISSN | 1879-3274 |
| 起始页码 | 77 |
| 卷号 | 77 |
| 英文摘要 | This mixed methods article discusses the role of scenario analysis as a tool to assess the broadest possible specter of positive and negative effects of technologies and social processes within current existential risk assessment and research. To do so, it compares and contrasts case studies of five ongoing, longitudinal scenario planning efforts of global nature- the Shell scenarios, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the CSIS Seven Revolutions Scenarios, The Millennium Project's State of The Future, and the NIC's Global Trends 2040, to derive lessons for whether and how the adjacent existential risk (X-risk) and tech assessment communities can better deploy scenario planning methodology. Observations are derived from interviews with practitioners involved in these efforts as well as an assessment of the publicly available material issued by each project, including the scenarios produced. The emphasis is on the methodologies used, the timelines considered, the forces each identifies as important scenario drivers, and the process of engagement once scenarios are created. Three practices identified include (1) constructing narratives based on strong data, (2) sticking to plausible scenarios (not wild cards), and (3) designing a process of engagement, which each of these does well albeit in different ways. The article concludes with a few brief recommendations for future scenario planning efforts, particularly relevant for x-risk studies that aim to be relevant for tech assessment and governance. Overall, this review shows global scenario efforts aimed at influencing governance would benefit from (a) a more uniformly shared vocabulary, (b) an underlying theory of cascading systemic change, (c) deeper methodological transparency, (d) increased transdisciplinary perspectives, yet (e) maintaining scientific rigor. These improvements would particularly benefit emerging tech-risk derived X-risk scenario efforts where the stakes are the highest they could be, safeguarding humanity's future. |
| 英文关键词 | Forecasting; Methods; Human extinction; Global catastrophic risks (GCRs); Scenario methods; Existential risks |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Social Issues ; Social Sciences - Other Topics |
| WOS类目 | Social Issues ; Social Sciences, Interdisciplinary |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001216103900001 |
| 来源期刊 | TECHNOLOGY IN SOCIETY
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| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/302604 |
| 作者单位 | Stanford University |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Undheim, Trond Arne. In search of better methods for the longitudinal assessment of tech-derived X-risks: How five leading scenario planning efforts can help[J],2024,77. |
| APA | Undheim, Trond Arne.(2024).In search of better methods for the longitudinal assessment of tech-derived X-risks: How five leading scenario planning efforts can help.TECHNOLOGY IN SOCIETY,77. |
| MLA | Undheim, Trond Arne."In search of better methods for the longitudinal assessment of tech-derived X-risks: How five leading scenario planning efforts can help".TECHNOLOGY IN SOCIETY 77(2024). |
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