气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Socio-economic variables improve accuracy and change spatial predictions in species distribution models

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DOI	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171588
	Socio-economic variables improve accuracy and change spatial predictions in species distribution models
	Bramorska, Beata; Komar, Ewa; Maugeri, Luca; Ruczynski, Ireneusz; Zmihorski, Michal
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0048-9697
EISSN	1879-1026
起始页码	924
卷号	924
英文摘要	In an era marked by increasing anthropogenic pressure, understanding the relations between human activities and wildlife is crucial for understanding ecological patterns, effective conservation, and management strategies. Here, we explore the potential and usefulness of socio-economic variables in species distribution modelling (SDM), focusing on their impact on the occurrence of wild mammals in Poland. Beyond the environmental factors commonly considered in SDM, like land-use, the study tests the importance of socio-economic characteristics of local human societies, such as age, income, working sector, gender, education, and village characteristics for explaining distribution of diverse mammalian groups, including carnivores, ungulates, rodents, soricids, and bats. The study revealed that incorporating socio-economic variables enhances the predictive power for >60 % of species and overall for most groups, with the exception being carnivores. For all the species combined, among the 10 predictors with highest predictive power, 6 belong to socio-economic group, while for specific species groups, socio-economic variables had similar predictive power as environmental variables. Furthermore, spatial predictions of species occurrence underwent changes when socio-economic variables were included in the model, resulting in a substantial mismatch in spatial predictions of species occurrence between environment-only models and models containing socio-economic variables. We conclude that socio-economic data has potential as useful predictors which increase prediction accuracy of wildlife occurrence and recommend its wider usage. Further, to our knowledge this is a first study on such a big scale for terrestrial mammals which evaluates performance based on presence or absence of socio-economic predictors in the model. We recognise the need for a more comprehensive approach in SDMs and that bridging the gap between human socio-economic dynamics and ecological processes may contribute to the understanding of the factors influencing biodiversity.
英文关键词	Biodiversity; Wildlife; Socioeconomy; Random forest; SDM
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001218416700001
来源期刊	SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/302317
作者单位	Polish Academy of Sciences; Mammal Research Institute of the Polish Academy of Sciences
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bramorska, Beata,Komar, Ewa,Maugeri, Luca,et al. Socio-economic variables improve accuracy and change spatial predictions in species distribution models[J],2024,924.
APA	Bramorska, Beata,Komar, Ewa,Maugeri, Luca,Ruczynski, Ireneusz,&Zmihorski, Michal.(2024).Socio-economic variables improve accuracy and change spatial predictions in species distribution models.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,924.
MLA	Bramorska, Beata,et al."Socio-economic variables improve accuracy and change spatial predictions in species distribution models".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 924(2024).