气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Analysis of environmental factors influencing endemic cholera risks in sub-Saharan Africa

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DOI	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171896
	Analysis of environmental factors influencing endemic cholera risks in sub-Saharan Africa
	Girotto, Cristiane D.; Behzadian, Kourosh; Musah, Anwar; Chen, Albert S.; Djordjevic, Slobodan; Nichols, Gordon; Campos, Luiza C.
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0048-9697
EISSN	1879-1026
起始页码	926
卷号	926
英文摘要	The recurring cholera outbreaks in sub-Saharan Africa are of growing concern, especially considering the potential acceleration in the global trend of larger and more lethal cholera outbreaks due to the impacts of climate change. However, there is a scarcity of evidence -based research addressing the environmental and infrastructure factors that sustain cholera recurrence in Africa. This study adopts a statistical approach to investigate over two decades of endemic cholera outbreaks and their relationship with five environmental factors: water provision, sanitation provision, raising temperatures, increased rainfall and GDP. The analysis covers thirteen of the fortytwo countries in the mainland sub-Saharan region, collectively representing one-third of the region ' s territory and half of its population. This breadth enables the findings to be generalised at a regional level. Results from all analyses consistently associate water provision with cholera reduction. The stratified model links increased water provision with a reduction in cholera risk that ranged from 4.2 % to 84.1 % among eight countries (out of 13 countries) as well as a reduction of such risk that ranged from 9.8 % to 68.9 % when there is increased sanitation provision, which was observed in nine countries (out of 13). These results indicate that the population ' s limited access to water and sanitation, as well as the rise in temperatures, are critical infrastructure and environmental factors contributing to endemic cholera and the heightened risk of outbreaks across the sub-Saharan region. Therefore, these are key areas for targeted interventions and cross -border collaboration to enhance resilience to outbreaks and lead to the end of endemic cholera in the region. However, it is important to interpret the results of this study with caution; hence, further investigation is recommended to conduct a more detailed analysis of the impact of infrastructure and environmental factors on reducing cholera risk.
英文关键词	Diseases; Outbreaks; Rainfall; Sanitation provision; Temperature; Water access
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001221795700001
来源期刊	SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/302302
作者单位	University of West London; University of London; University College London; University of London; University College London; University of Exeter; Public Health England
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Girotto, Cristiane D.,Behzadian, Kourosh,Musah, Anwar,et al. Analysis of environmental factors influencing endemic cholera risks in sub-Saharan Africa[J],2024,926.
APA	Girotto, Cristiane D..,Behzadian, Kourosh.,Musah, Anwar.,Chen, Albert S..,Djordjevic, Slobodan.,...&Campos, Luiza C..(2024).Analysis of environmental factors influencing endemic cholera risks in sub-Saharan Africa.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,926.
MLA	Girotto, Cristiane D.,et al."Analysis of environmental factors influencing endemic cholera risks in sub-Saharan Africa".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 926(2024).