气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Stability of water yield in watersheds

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DOI	10.1007/s11430-023-1206-4
	Stability of water yield in watersheds
	Yan, Yu; Liu, Zhiyong; Chen, Xiaohong; Huang, Liyan
发表日期	2024
ISSN	1674-7313
EISSN	1869-1897
起始页码	67
结束页码	2
卷号	67 期号:2
英文摘要	The hydrological system of a watershed is intricately influenced by both underlying characteristics and climate conditions. Understanding the variability in water yield is essential for effective water resources management and water security in the context of changing environments. In this study, we adopted the Budyko framework and leveraged simulations from the CMIP6 model to investigate the compensation effects of climate and underlying characteristics on watershed water yield. Based on Taylor expansion and Budyko framework, we estimated the sensitivity of watershed water yield to climate and underlying characteristics (the first-and second-order partial derivatives). By combining external watershed characteristics (e.g., water yield ratios and underlying characteristics) with internal sensitivity coefficients, this study further used vine copula and principal component analysis to quantify the stability of watershed water yield. Our findings show: (1) Water-yield changes related to underlying characteristics could be offset by climate-related water-yield changes across all climate zones, maintaining the water yield ratio steady (i.e., the compensation effects). (2) However, global watersheds will turn more sensitive to underlying characteristics and less sensitive to climate variation in the future. Both climate- and underlying-related sensitivities increase in watersheds with arid climates. (3) The stability of watershed water yield will gradually diminish in the future. From 1901-1950 to 2051-2100, the global stability of 280 watersheds drops from 0.054 to 0.021 (i.e., stability index identified by the joint probability). Particularly, the largest change in stability of water yield reaches -0.347 +/- 0.18 in arid regions. In semi-arid, semi-humid, and humid regions, the changes are -0.039 +/- 0.010, -0.028 +/- 0.005, and -0.005 +/- 0.002, respectively. The findings provide a reference for the future sustainable water resources development under climate change, highlighting the vulnerability of the water resources in arid and semi-arid watersheds.
英文关键词	Hydrological system stability; Compensation effects on water yield; Sensitivities; Budyko-Fu decomposition framework; Global watersheds
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Geology
WOS类目	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS记录号	WOS:001146050100002
来源期刊	SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/302206
作者单位	Sun Yat Sen University; Southern Marine Science & Engineering Guangdong Laboratory; Southern Marine Science & Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yan, Yu,Liu, Zhiyong,Chen, Xiaohong,et al. Stability of water yield in watersheds[J],2024,67(2).
APA	Yan, Yu,Liu, Zhiyong,Chen, Xiaohong,&Huang, Liyan.(2024).Stability of water yield in watersheds.SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES,67(2).
MLA	Yan, Yu,et al."Stability of water yield in watersheds".SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES 67.2(2024).