气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Evolution of wind speed observed in Brazil between 1961 and 2020

CCPortal

DOI	10.1002/joc.8433
	Evolution of wind speed observed in Brazil between 1961 and 2020
	Lima, Gizelly Cardoso; Rodrigues, Daniele Torres; Silva, Claudio Moises; Costa, Patricia Catarine de Sousa
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0899-8418
EISSN	1097-0088
起始页码	44
结束页码	6
卷号	44 期号:6
英文摘要	The study's main objective was to analyse daily wind speed data in Brazil collected on-site from 1961 to 2020 and assess changes in two 30-year climatological normals, denoted as P1 and P2. Data were sourced from 54 INMET-managed meteorological stations, with missing data filled using the bootstrap expectation maximization algorithm. Imputation performance was evaluated, and results suggested that the 10% imputed level was most reliable, showing low RMSE values (below 0.5), SD values near 1, and r values exceeding 0.93. This method proved suitable for reconstructing historical wind speed data in Brazil. The analysis included the application of the Mann-Kendall test to detect linear trends and Sen's slope test to quantify trend intensity, both at a 5% significance level. Positive trends during P2 were observed in the Amazon basin and Brazil's semiarid region, while negative trends increased along the coast and in the Southeast region. Average wind speeds during P1 were higher than in P2. Comparing the two climatological normals revealed significant positive trends in some regions during P2, with an increase in average monthly variation of up to 0.85 ms(-1). The average slopes of significant trends were -1 and 1 ms(-1)decade(-1) for all periods. The results indicated high wind magnitudes, with maximum power density of 778.08 Wm(-2) for the NEB region, 170.90 Wm(-2) for the SEB region and 401.67 Wm(-2) for the SUB, making these regions promising for future wind power projects. These findings have the potential to enhance the optimization of renewable wind energy generation in Brazil.
英文关键词	climate changes; linear trend; missing data; multiple imputation
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001189324800001
来源期刊	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/302172
作者单位	Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte; Universidade Federal do Piaui
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lima, Gizelly Cardoso,Rodrigues, Daniele Torres,Silva, Claudio Moises,et al. Evolution of wind speed observed in Brazil between 1961 and 2020[J],2024,44(6).
APA	Lima, Gizelly Cardoso,Rodrigues, Daniele Torres,Silva, Claudio Moises,&Costa, Patricia Catarine de Sousa.(2024).Evolution of wind speed observed in Brazil between 1961 and 2020.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,44(6).
MLA	Lima, Gizelly Cardoso,et al."Evolution of wind speed observed in Brazil between 1961 and 2020".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 44.6(2024).