气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Forest fire vulnerability in Nepal's Chure region: Investigating the influencing factors using generalized linear model

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DOI	10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e28525
	Forest fire vulnerability in Nepal's Chure region: Investigating the influencing factors using generalized linear model
	Joshi, Khagendra Prasad; Adhikari, Gunjan; Bhattarai, Divya; Adhikari, Ayush; Lamichanne, Saurav
发表日期	2024
EISSN	2405-8440
起始页码	10
结束页码	7
卷号	10 期号:7
英文摘要	The Chure region, among the world ' s youngest mountains, stands out as highly susceptible to natural calamities, particularly forest fires. The region has consistently experienced forest fire incidents, resulting in the degradation of valuable natural and anthropogenic resources. Despite its vulnerability, there have been limited studies to understand the relationship of various causative factors for the recurring fire problem. Hence, to comprehend the influencing factors for the recurring forest fire problem and its extent, we utilized generalized linear modeling under binary logistic regression to combine the dependent variable of satellite detected fire points and various independent variables. We conducted a variance inflation factor (VIF) test and correlation matrix to identify the 14 suitable variables for the study. The analysis revealed that forest fires occurred mostly during the three pre -monsoon periods and had a significant positive relation with the area under forest, rangeland, bare -grounds, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) (P < 0.05). Consequently, our model showed that the probability of fire incidents decreases with elevation, precipitation, and population density (P < 0.05). Among the significant variables, the forest areas emerges as the most influencing factor, followed by precipitation, elevation, area of rangeland, population density, NDVI, and the area of bare ground. The validation of the model was done through the area under the curve (AUC = 0.92) and accuracy (ACC = 0.89) assessments, which showed the model performed excellently in terms of predictive capabilities. The modeling result and the forest fire susceptible map provide valuable insights into the forest fire vulnerability in the region, offering baseline information about forest fires that will be helpful for line agencies to prepare management strategies to further prevent the deterioration of the region.
英文关键词	Forest fire; Binary logistic regression; Spatial modeling; Susceptible map
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
WOS类目	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001226068600001
来源期刊	HELIYON
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/301750
作者单位	Tribhuvan University; Tribhuvan University; Institute of Forestry (IOF) - Nepal
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Joshi, Khagendra Prasad,Adhikari, Gunjan,Bhattarai, Divya,et al. Forest fire vulnerability in Nepal's Chure region: Investigating the influencing factors using generalized linear model[J],2024,10(7).
APA	Joshi, Khagendra Prasad,Adhikari, Gunjan,Bhattarai, Divya,Adhikari, Ayush,&Lamichanne, Saurav.(2024).Forest fire vulnerability in Nepal's Chure region: Investigating the influencing factors using generalized linear model.HELIYON,10(7).
MLA	Joshi, Khagendra Prasad,et al."Forest fire vulnerability in Nepal's Chure region: Investigating the influencing factors using generalized linear model".HELIYON 10.7(2024).