气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Using Ensembles to Analyze Predictability Links in the Tropical Cyclone Flood Forecast Chain

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DOI	10.1175/JHM-D-23-0022.1
	Using Ensembles to Analyze Predictability Links in the Tropical Cyclone Flood Forecast Chain
	Titley, H. A.; Cloke, H. L.; Stephens, E. M.; Pappenberger, F.; Zsoter, E.
发表日期	2024
ISSN	1525-755X
EISSN	1525-7541
起始页码	25
结束页码	1
卷号	25 期号:1
英文摘要	Fluvial flooding is a major cause of death and damages from tropical cyclones (TCs), so it is important to understand the predictability of river flooding in TC cases, and the potential of global ensemble flood forecast systems to inform warning and preparedness activities. This paper demonstrates a methodology using ensemble forecasts to follow predictability and uncertainty through the forecast chain in the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) to explore the connections between the skill of the TC track, intensity, precipitation, and river discharge forecasts. Using the case of Hur-ricane Iota, which brought severe flooding to Central America in November 2020, we assess the performance of each en-semble member at each stage of the forecast, along with the overall spread and change between forecast runs, and analyze the connections between each forecast component. Strong relationships are found between track, precipitation, and river discharge skill. Changes in TC intensity skill only result in significant improvements in discharge skill in river catchments close to the landfall location that are impacted by the heavy rains around the eyewall. The rainfall from the wider storm cir-culation is crucial to flood impacts in most of the affected river basins, with a stronger relationship with the post-landfall track error rather than the precise landfall location. We recommend the wider application of this technique in TC cases to investigate how this cascade of predictability varies with different forecast and geographical contexts in order to help in-form flood early warning in TCs.
英文关键词	Hurricanes/typhoons; Flood events; Tropical cyclones; Ensembles; Probability forecasts/models/ distribution; Numerical weather prediction/forecasting
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001147747800001
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/301304
作者单位	Met Office - UK; University of Reading; European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Titley, H. A.,Cloke, H. L.,Stephens, E. M.,et al. Using Ensembles to Analyze Predictability Links in the Tropical Cyclone Flood Forecast Chain[J],2024,25(1).
APA	Titley, H. A.,Cloke, H. L.,Stephens, E. M.,Pappenberger, F.,&Zsoter, E..(2024).Using Ensembles to Analyze Predictability Links in the Tropical Cyclone Flood Forecast Chain.JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY,25(1).
MLA	Titley, H. A.,et al."Using Ensembles to Analyze Predictability Links in the Tropical Cyclone Flood Forecast Chain".JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY 25.1(2024).