气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Temporal evolution of hurricane activity: insights from decades of category 1-5 analysis

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DOI	10.1007/s12665-024-11504-6
	Temporal evolution of hurricane activity: insights from decades of category 1-5 analysis
	Neto, Jose Augusto Ferreira; Mendes, David; Goncalves, Weber Andrade; Cintra, Marcio Machado; de Oliveira Jr, Jose Francisco
发表日期	2024
ISSN	1866-6280
EISSN	1866-6299
起始页码	83
结束页码	7
卷号	83 期号:7
英文摘要	This study conducts a comprehensive analysis of hurricane trajectories and their variabilities in categories 1-5 over several decades for the North Atlantic Basin. Utilizing HURDAT2 data from 1961 to 2021, the analysis categorizes hurricanes based on the rate of pressure drop within a 6-h interval, revealing distinct patterns of intensification and weakening among different categories. The K-means clustering method synthesizes hurricane trajectories into representative paths, illustrating significant variations across decades. The research indicates that hurricanes in categories 1 and 2 predominantly originate from tropical depressions, with this trend slightly intensifying in categories 3 and 4. In contrast, Category 5 displayed variation, revealing an increased frequency in the subsequent decades. Additionally, the study analyzes the monthly distribution of hurricanes, identifying September as the peak month across all categories. The analysis further detects significant interannual variability with a noticeable intensification in hurricane activity since the 1990s, albeit with some reductions in the early 2010s. The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is used to summarize cyclonic activities, with results indicating a decrease from 1970 to 1995, followed by a consistent surge over the last 15 years. This aligns with previous research suggesting an approximately 60% increase in ACE since the 1980s. Furthermore, an analysis of North Atlantic Basin data reflects a progressive increase in the frequency of named storms (NS) and hurricanes, particularly from 1991 onwards. In conclusion, the study highlights not only an escalating frequency of hurricanes, but also increased variability and unpredictability, necessitating further research to comprehend the underlying causes and evaluate potential socioeconomic and environmental consequences.
英文关键词	Hurricanes; Climate change; Climate variability
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Water Resources
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources
WOS记录号	WOS:001187539600003
来源期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL EARTH SCIENCES
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/300995
作者单位	Universidade Federal de Alagoas
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Neto, Jose Augusto Ferreira,Mendes, David,Goncalves, Weber Andrade,et al. Temporal evolution of hurricane activity: insights from decades of category 1-5 analysis[J],2024,83(7).
APA	Neto, Jose Augusto Ferreira,Mendes, David,Goncalves, Weber Andrade,Cintra, Marcio Machado,&de Oliveira Jr, Jose Francisco.(2024).Temporal evolution of hurricane activity: insights from decades of category 1-5 analysis.ENVIRONMENTAL EARTH SCIENCES,83(7).
MLA	Neto, Jose Augusto Ferreira,et al."Temporal evolution of hurricane activity: insights from decades of category 1-5 analysis".ENVIRONMENTAL EARTH SCIENCES 83.7(2024).