气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Exploring Climate Variables and Drought Patterns: A Comprehensive Trend Analysis and Evaluation of Beas Basin in Western Himalaya

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s41748-024-00376-2
	Exploring Climate Variables and Drought Patterns: A Comprehensive Trend Analysis and Evaluation of Beas Basin in Western Himalaya
	Kant, Chander; Kumar, Avinash; Meena, Ray Singh
发表日期	2024
ISSN	2509-9426
EISSN	2509-9434
起始页码	8
结束页码	2
卷号	8 期号:2
英文摘要	The complex topography of the Himalayan region makes it difficult to analyze its climatic variables over the region. The study has been carried out to identify the trends in climate variables and drought analysis over the Beas River basin in the western Himalayas. To understand the impact of changing climate on the Beas River basin, five downscaled global circulation models (GCMs) were used, namely BNU-ESM, Can-ESM2, CNRM CM5, MPI-ESM MR, and MPI-ESM LR. These GCMs were obtained for two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios: 4.5, which represents the normal scenario, and 8.5, which represents the most extreme scenario for anticipated concentrations of carbon and greenhouse gases. The multi-model ensemble (MME) of these 5 GCMs were used to project rainfall and temperature. Further Innovative Trends Analysis (ITA) and modified Mann-Kendell (mMK) trend tests have been used for trend analysis at a 5% significance level. The drought pattern in the future timescale of the ensembled model is calculated using the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) for both RCPs. The ITA, Mann-Kendell, and Sen's slope trends showed decreased precipitation under RCP 4.5 in the Manali region and showed an increasing trend for the remaining locations under both scenarios. Furthermore, SPI values showed frequent droughts under both RCPs. The study outcomes will serve as a scientific foundation for the sustainability of water resources and agricultural output in arid inland regions vulnerable to changing climate.
英文关键词	Climate change; Innovative trends analysis; Modified Mann Kendall; Global climate model; Standardise precipitation index
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001173430700002
来源期刊	EARTH SYSTEMS AND ENVIRONMENT
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/299589
作者单位	National Institute of Technology (NIT System); National Institute of Technology Hamirpur
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kant, Chander,Kumar, Avinash,Meena, Ray Singh. Exploring Climate Variables and Drought Patterns: A Comprehensive Trend Analysis and Evaluation of Beas Basin in Western Himalaya[J],2024,8(2).
APA	Kant, Chander,Kumar, Avinash,&Meena, Ray Singh.(2024).Exploring Climate Variables and Drought Patterns: A Comprehensive Trend Analysis and Evaluation of Beas Basin in Western Himalaya.EARTH SYSTEMS AND ENVIRONMENT,8(2).
MLA	Kant, Chander,et al."Exploring Climate Variables and Drought Patterns: A Comprehensive Trend Analysis and Evaluation of Beas Basin in Western Himalaya".EARTH SYSTEMS AND ENVIRONMENT 8.2(2024).