气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Increasing the prospective capacity of global crop and rangeland monitoring with phenology tailored seasonal precipitation forecasts

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100434
	Increasing the prospective capacity of global crop and rangeland monitoring with phenology tailored seasonal precipitation forecasts
	Meroni, Michele; Vojnovic, Petar; Zampieri, Matteo; Materia, Stefano; Rembold, Felix; Kipkogei, Oliver; Toreti, Andrea
发表日期	2024
ISSN	2405-8807
起始页码	33
卷号	33
英文摘要	Droughts are more and more often a limiting factor to agricultural production and can have severe negative effects on food security in vulnerable countries. Global agriculture early warning systems monitor agriculture in near real-time by analyzing meteorological data (e.g. precipitation and temperature) and optical remote sensing data as proxy vegetation health to detect possible negative anomalies and trigger warnings. Seasonal climate forecast can add a predictive component and inform about upcoming precipitation deficits, thus allowing anticipation and improved planning of response actions. Here, we propose a scheme to adapt the standard precipitation forecast from the seasonal Copernicus Climate Change Service multi-system to crop and rangeland phenology, making them suitable for agricultural early warning. Precipitation forecasts are first elaborated into tercile maps showing the probability of the most likely tercile (i.e. drier than normal, normal, wetter than normal) and associated skills of all possible monthly periods combinations included in the six months forecasting horizon. Afterwards, agronomically relevant tercile maps are produced for the closest season in time at any location. These maps are obtained by mosaicking the forecasts for the appropriate growing season period at each grid cell. The resulting map shows the tercile probability for the remaining part of the ongoing growing season (if any at time of analysis) or the probability of the next upcoming season (if in between growing season at time of analysis). The proposed methodology offers a precipitation seasonal forecast product ready to use by agricultural analysts and directly ingestible by automatic warning systems.
英文关键词	Drought; Agriculture; Early warning systems; Seasonal climate forecast; Crop and rangeland phenology; Food security
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001162778800001
来源期刊	CLIMATE SERVICES
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/299524
作者单位	European Commission Joint Research Centre; EC JRC ISPRA Site; King Abdullah University of Science & Technology; Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC); Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya; Barcelona Supercomputer Center (BSC-CNS); European Commission Joint Research Centre; EC JRC ISPRA Site
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Meroni, Michele,Vojnovic, Petar,Zampieri, Matteo,et al. Increasing the prospective capacity of global crop and rangeland monitoring with phenology tailored seasonal precipitation forecasts[J],2024,33.
APA	Meroni, Michele.,Vojnovic, Petar.,Zampieri, Matteo.,Materia, Stefano.,Rembold, Felix.,...&Toreti, Andrea.(2024).Increasing the prospective capacity of global crop and rangeland monitoring with phenology tailored seasonal precipitation forecasts.CLIMATE SERVICES,33.
MLA	Meroni, Michele,et al."Increasing the prospective capacity of global crop and rangeland monitoring with phenology tailored seasonal precipitation forecasts".CLIMATE SERVICES 33(2024).