气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Insights into meteorological drought: navigating Uganda's cattle corridor through past trends and future projections

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s11069-024-06545-w
	Insights into meteorological drought: navigating Uganda's cattle corridor through past trends and future projections
	Nalwanga, F. S.; Nanteza, J.; Obua, J.; Nimusiima, A.; Mukwaya, P.; Kisembe, J.; Odongo, R.; Musali, P.; Nabanoga, G. N.; Kisira, Y.
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0921-030X
EISSN	1573-0840
英文摘要	The cattle corridor in Uganda is known for its vulnerability to unpredictable rainfall patterns, recurring and severe droughts, all of which lead to water scarcity and crop failures. Therefore, to gain a deeper understanding of these drought characteristics, three districts were selected within the cattle corridor: Rakai in the South, Nakasongola in the Central, and Nabilatuk in the North. An analysis of historical and near future meteorological drought changes in the cattle corridor using SPI from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiments (CORDEX) for the historical periods 1981-2010 and 2031-2060 (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). Trends in SPI values were assessed using the Sen slope estimator and Mann-Kendall test at 0.05. Results suggest ongoing drought occurrences, even during traditionally wet periods, especially during La Nina period. Nakasongola district experienced more frequent droughts, with 25 in the historical period and 26 in the near future compared to Rakai and Nabilatuk districts. Historically, the districts had average drought spans of 7-9 months and maximum spans of 23-36 months. Under RCP4.5, durations ranged from 6 to 11 months (average) and 34-60 months (maximum), while under RCP8.5, from 8 to 13 months (average) and 23-41 months (maximum). Drought severity and duration were expected to increase across all districts, with Rakai district facing the longest historical (January 2007-December 2009) and the projected (April 2054-March 2059) droughts. Additionally, Nabilatuk showed negative and significant SPI trends historically (Sen's slope = - 004, p value = 0.004). Hence, tailored interventions are crucial for stakeholders managing drought to build resilience.
英文关键词	Precipitation data; Drought characterization; Extreme drought events; Drought condition projection
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS类目	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS记录号	WOS:001194872300001
来源期刊	NATURAL HAZARDS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/299102
作者单位	Makerere University; Makerere University; Makerere University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Nalwanga, F. S.,Nanteza, J.,Obua, J.,et al. Insights into meteorological drought: navigating Uganda's cattle corridor through past trends and future projections[J],2024.
APA	Nalwanga, F. S..,Nanteza, J..,Obua, J..,Nimusiima, A..,Mukwaya, P..,...&Kisira, Y..(2024).Insights into meteorological drought: navigating Uganda's cattle corridor through past trends and future projections.NATURAL HAZARDS.
MLA	Nalwanga, F. S.,et al."Insights into meteorological drought: navigating Uganda's cattle corridor through past trends and future projections".NATURAL HAZARDS (2024).