气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Analyzing the uncertainty of potential evapotranspiration models in drought projections derived for a semi-arid watershed

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DOI	10.1007/s00704-023-04817-2
	Analyzing the uncertainty of potential evapotranspiration models in drought projections derived for a semi-arid watershed
	Okkan, Umut; Fistikoglu, Okan; Ersoy, Zeynep Beril; Noori, Ahmad Tamim
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0177-798X
EISSN	1434-4483
起始页码	155
结束页码	3
卷号	155 期号:3
英文摘要	Potential evapotranspiration (PET) serves as a proxy for estimating actual evapotranspiration (AET) in hydrological model simulations and constitutes an input for drought analyses. Nonetheless, it is elusive how the inclusion of different PET models in a modeling chain, which encapsulates multiple general circulation models (GCMs) operating under varying emission scenarios, can affect drought projections. In this study, utilizing four GCMs, two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), and eleven widely used PET models, ensemble projections of the frequency of droughts in the Gordes, a semi-arid watershed located in Western Turkey, were derived for the period 2021-2050. The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was used to characterize meteorological drought, while the standardized runoff index (SRI) was preferred for inspecting hydrological drought. Using an analysis of variance decomposition, the contribution of each stage of the modeling chain to both meteorological and hydrological drought uncertainty was quantified. Results show that PET models expectedly produced large disparities in projected changes in the evapotranspiration regime. Even so, only the 25% uncertainty contribution of PET models to severe meteorological drought frequency can be deemed notable. Yet, their contribution to uncertainties in mild and moderate meteorological drought frequencies is rather marginal (<= 5%) compared to what GCMs overwhelmingly do. It is also worth noting that SPEI and SRI respond differently to sources of uncertainty and that SRI suggests drought frequencies of significantly lower amounts compared to those of SPEI, possibly because the temperature dependence of AET, which SRI considers synthetically, is much less than that of PET.
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001136007600001
来源期刊	THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/298662
作者单位	Balikesir University; Dokuz Eylul University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Okkan, Umut,Fistikoglu, Okan,Ersoy, Zeynep Beril,et al. Analyzing the uncertainty of potential evapotranspiration models in drought projections derived for a semi-arid watershed[J],2024,155(3).
APA	Okkan, Umut,Fistikoglu, Okan,Ersoy, Zeynep Beril,&Noori, Ahmad Tamim.(2024).Analyzing the uncertainty of potential evapotranspiration models in drought projections derived for a semi-arid watershed.THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY,155(3).
MLA	Okkan, Umut,et al."Analyzing the uncertainty of potential evapotranspiration models in drought projections derived for a semi-arid watershed".THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY 155.3(2024).