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| DOI | 10.1016/j.apm.2024.01.007 |
| A fluctuation data grey model and its prediction of rainstorm days | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| ISSN | 0307-904X |
| EISSN | 1872-8480 |
| 起始页码 | 127 |
| 卷号 | 127 |
| 英文摘要 | Rainstorm is one of the most severe and frequent meteorological disasters. The rainstorm event brings considerable risks to the natural ecosystem and human life. There is a limited body of research on applying the grey prediction model for predicting rainstorm -related data. Based on the extreme precipitation index defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, this paper uses the data of rainstorm days from 493 weather stations in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River to establish a prediction model. Improving the accuracy of rainstorm days prediction can bring valuable results to decision -makers in a specific region. The annual rainstorm days series exhibits randomness, irregular nonlinearity, fluctuations, etc.; however, the traditional grey prediction model can only identify the trend of a series but not its fluctuations, making its prediction extremely challenging. Therefore, this paper introduces a new dynamic grey action quantity based on the traditional grey model, and the parameters are solved by the hybrid technique of the genetic algorithm and the constrained fmincon function. The prediction results of the new model are compared with those of the traditional grey model, the seasonal grey model, the neural network, and the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average. In terms of prediction accuracy and similarity of fluctuations, the results demonstrate that the new model outperforms these models. |
| 英文关键词 | Rainstorm days; Grey prediction model; Genetic algorithm; Fmincon function |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Engineering ; Mathematics ; Mechanics |
| WOS类目 | Engineering, Multidisciplinary ; Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications ; Mechanics |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001163887600001 |
| 来源期刊 | APPLIED MATHEMATICAL MODELLING
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| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/297711 |
| 作者单位 | Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology; Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology; Nanjing University of Posts & Telecommunications |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | . A fluctuation data grey model and its prediction of rainstorm days[J],2024,127. |
| APA | (2024).A fluctuation data grey model and its prediction of rainstorm days.APPLIED MATHEMATICAL MODELLING,127. |
| MLA | "A fluctuation data grey model and its prediction of rainstorm days".APPLIED MATHEMATICAL MODELLING 127(2024). |
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