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| DOI | 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.130779 |
| Model predictive control and rainfall Uncertainties: Performance and risk analysis for drainage systems | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| ISSN | 0022-1694 |
| EISSN | 1879-2707 |
| 起始页码 | 630 |
| 卷号 | 630 |
| 英文摘要 | Urban flooding resulting from severe rainstorms is an increasing challenge for cities worldwide due to climate change and rapid urbanization. Model predictive control (MPC) has emerged as a promising approach for realtime management of urban drainage systems to mitigate flooding impacts. However, existing MPC research often relies on idealized rainfall forecasts without adequately accounting for forecast uncertainty, which can compromise the effectiveness of MPC strategies. This study aims to address this critical research gap by developing a framework to evaluate the impacts of forecast uncertainty on MPC performance for urban drainage management. The framework consists of 3 components, (1) martingale model of forecast evolution based on Langevin dynamics for generating rainfall data under different uncertainty conditions (2) MPC, which accepts the rainfall inputs and obtains the real-time control results under different uncertainty conditions and (3) the Scheduling Performance Indicator module, which performs a systematic evaluation of the real-time control system. Using a case study of the Doumen region in Fuzhou City, the results reveal two key findings: First, MPC performance remains close to optimal when forecast uncertainty levels are between 0.1 and 0.3, but deteriorates significantly at uncertainty levels from 0.3 to 0.5. Second, while the MPC error feedback module can occasionally degrade performance for individual events, its overall impact is beneficial in reducing performance deviation risks. |
| 英文关键词 | Model predictive control; Uncertainty evolution; Langevin dynamics; Rainfall forecast uncertainty; Urban drainage systems; Real-time control |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources |
| WOS类目 | Engineering, Civil ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001176152700001 |
| 来源期刊 | JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
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| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/297501 |
| 作者单位 | Northeastern University - China; China Institute of Water Resources & Hydropower Research; Xiamen University; Jiangsu University; Hohai University |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | . Model predictive control and rainfall Uncertainties: Performance and risk analysis for drainage systems[J],2024,630. |
| APA | (2024).Model predictive control and rainfall Uncertainties: Performance and risk analysis for drainage systems.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,630. |
| MLA | "Model predictive control and rainfall Uncertainties: Performance and risk analysis for drainage systems".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 630(2024). |
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