气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Spatiotemporal trends and covariates of Lyme borreliosis incidence in Poland, 2010-2019

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DOI	10.1038/s41598-024-61349-z
	Spatiotemporal trends and covariates of Lyme borreliosis incidence in Poland, 2010-2019
	Kulisz, Joanna; Hoeks, Selwyn; Kunc-Koziol, Renata; Wozniak, Aneta; Zajac, Zbigniew; Schipper, Aafke M.; Cabezas-Cruz, Alejandro; Huijbregts, Mark A. J.
发表日期	2024
ISSN	2045-2322
起始页码	14
结束页码	1
卷号	14 期号:1
英文摘要	Lyme borreliosis (LB) is the most commonly diagnosed tick-borne disease in the northern hemisphere. Since an efficient vaccine is not yet available, prevention of transmission is essential. This, in turn, requires a thorough comprehension of the spatiotemporal dynamics of LB transmission as well as underlying drivers. This study aims to identify spatiotemporal trends and unravel environmental and socio-economic covariates of LB incidence in Poland, using consistent monitoring data from 2010 through 2019 obtained for 320 (aggregated) districts. Using yearly LB incidence values, we identified an overall increase in LB incidence from 2010 to 2019. Additionally, we observed a large variation of LB incidences between the Polish districts, with the highest risks of LB in the eastern districts. We applied spatiotemporal Bayesian models in an all-subsets modeling framework to evaluate potential associations between LB incidence and various potentially relevant environmental and socio-economic variables, including climatic conditions as well as characteristics of the vegetation and the density of tick host species. The best-supported spatiotemporal model identified positive relationships between LB incidence and forest cover, the share of parks and green areas, minimum monthly temperature, mean monthly precipitation, and gross primary productivity. A negative relationship was found with human population density. The findings of our study indicate that LB incidence in Poland might increase as a result of ongoing climate change, notably increases in minimum monthly temperature. Our results may aid in the development of targeted prevention strategies.
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
WOS类目	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001218726300046
来源期刊	SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/297473
作者单位	Medical University of Lublin; Radboud University Nijmegen; Agence Nationale de Securite Sanitaire de l'Alimentation, de l'Environnement du Travail (ANSES); INRAE; Ecole Nationale Veterinaire d'Alfort (ENVA)
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kulisz, Joanna,Hoeks, Selwyn,Kunc-Koziol, Renata,et al. Spatiotemporal trends and covariates of Lyme borreliosis incidence in Poland, 2010-2019[J],2024,14(1).
APA	Kulisz, Joanna.,Hoeks, Selwyn.,Kunc-Koziol, Renata.,Wozniak, Aneta.,Zajac, Zbigniew.,...&Huijbregts, Mark A. J..(2024).Spatiotemporal trends and covariates of Lyme borreliosis incidence in Poland, 2010-2019.SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,14(1).
MLA	Kulisz, Joanna,et al."Spatiotemporal trends and covariates of Lyme borreliosis incidence in Poland, 2010-2019".SCIENTIFIC REPORTS 14.1(2024).