气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Using high resolution climate models to explore future changes in post-tropical cyclone precipitation

CCPortal

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ad2163
	Using high resolution climate models to explore future changes in post-tropical cyclone precipitation
	Bower, Erica; Reed, Kevin A.
发表日期	2024
ISSN	1748-9326
起始页码	19
结束页码	2
卷号	19 期号:2
英文摘要	One of the most costly effects of climate change will be its impact on extreme weather events, including tropical cyclones (TCs). Understanding these changes is of growing importance, and high resolution global climate models are providing potential for such studies, specifically for TCs. Beyond the difficulties associated with TC behavior in a warming climate, the extratropical transition (ET) of TCs into post-tropical cyclones (PTCs) creates another challenge when understanding these events and any potential future changes. PTCs can produce excessive rainfall despite losing their original tropical characteristics. The present study examines the representation of PTCs and their precipitation in three high resolution (25-50 km) climate models: CNRM, MRI, and HadGEM. All three of these models agree on a simulated decrease in TC and PTC events in the future warming scenario, yet they lack consistency in simulated regional patterns of these changes, which is further evident in regional changes in PTC-related precipitation. The models also struggle with their represented intensity evolution of storms during and after the ET process. Despite these limitations in simulating intensity and regional characteristics, the models all simulate a shift toward more frequent rain rates above 10 mm h-1 in PTCs. These high rain rates become 4%-12% more likely in the warmer climate scenario, resulting in a 5%-12% increase in accumulated rainfall from these rates.
英文关键词	tropical cyclones; climate modeling; extratropical transition; extreme precipitation
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001156834000001
来源期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/297296
作者单位	State University of New York (SUNY) System; State University of New York (SUNY) Stony Brook
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bower, Erica,Reed, Kevin A.. Using high resolution climate models to explore future changes in post-tropical cyclone precipitation[J],2024,19(2).
APA	Bower, Erica,&Reed, Kevin A..(2024).Using high resolution climate models to explore future changes in post-tropical cyclone precipitation.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,19(2).
MLA	Bower, Erica,et al."Using high resolution climate models to explore future changes in post-tropical cyclone precipitation".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 19.2(2024).