气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Inertia of Technology Stocks: A Technology-Explicit Model for the Transition toward a Low-Carbon Global Aluminum Cycle

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DOI	10.1021/acs.est.4c00976
	Inertia of Technology Stocks: A Technology-Explicit Model for the Transition toward a Low-Carbon Global Aluminum Cycle
	Langhorst, Moritz; Billy, Romain Guillaume; Schwotzer, Christian; Kaiser, Felix; Muller, Daniel Beat
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0013-936X
EISSN	1520-5851
起始页码	58
结束页码	22
卷号	58 期号:22
英文摘要	Low-carbon technologies are essential for the aluminum industry to meet its climate targets despite increasing demand. However, the penetration of these technologies is often delayed due to the long lifetimes of the industrial assets currently in use. Existing models and scenarios for the aluminum sector omit this inertia and therefore potentially overestimate the realistic mitigation potential. Here, we introduce a technology-explicit dynamic material flow model for the global primary (smelters) and secondary (melting furnaces) aluminum production capacities. In business-as-usual scenarios, we project emissions from smelters and melting furnaces to rise from 710 Mt CO2-eq./a in 2020 to 920-1400 Mt CO2-eq./a in 2050. Rapid implementation of inert anodes in smelters can reduce emissions by 14% by 2050. However, a limitation of emissions compatible with a 2 degrees C scenario requires combined action: (1) an improvement of collection and recycling systems to absorb all the available postconsumer scrap, (2) a fast and wide deployment of low-carbon technologies, and (3) a rapid transition to low-carbon electricity sources. These measures need to be implemented even faster in scenarios with a stronger increase in aluminum demand. Lock-in effects are likely: building new capacity using conventional technologies will compromise climate mitigation efforts and would require premature retirement of industrial assets.
英文关键词	Material flow analysis; aluminum; smelter; recycling; stock dynamics; greenhouse gases; climate change mitigation; industrial assets; lifetime
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Engineering, Environmental ; Environmental Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001229493000001
来源期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/297268
作者单位	Norwegian University of Science & Technology (NTNU); RWTH Aachen University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Langhorst, Moritz,Billy, Romain Guillaume,Schwotzer, Christian,et al. Inertia of Technology Stocks: A Technology-Explicit Model for the Transition toward a Low-Carbon Global Aluminum Cycle[J],2024,58(22).
APA	Langhorst, Moritz,Billy, Romain Guillaume,Schwotzer, Christian,Kaiser, Felix,&Muller, Daniel Beat.(2024).Inertia of Technology Stocks: A Technology-Explicit Model for the Transition toward a Low-Carbon Global Aluminum Cycle.ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY,58(22).
MLA	Langhorst, Moritz,et al."Inertia of Technology Stocks: A Technology-Explicit Model for the Transition toward a Low-Carbon Global Aluminum Cycle".ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 58.22(2024).