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| DOI | 10.1021/acs.est.4c00976 |
| Inertia of Technology Stocks: A Technology-Explicit Model for the Transition toward a Low-Carbon Global Aluminum Cycle | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| ISSN | 0013-936X |
| EISSN | 1520-5851 |
| 起始页码 | 58 |
| 结束页码 | 22 |
| 卷号 | 58期号:22 |
| 英文摘要 | Low-carbon technologies are essential for the aluminum industry to meet its climate targets despite increasing demand. However, the penetration of these technologies is often delayed due to the long lifetimes of the industrial assets currently in use. Existing models and scenarios for the aluminum sector omit this inertia and therefore potentially overestimate the realistic mitigation potential. Here, we introduce a technology-explicit dynamic material flow model for the global primary (smelters) and secondary (melting furnaces) aluminum production capacities. In business-as-usual scenarios, we project emissions from smelters and melting furnaces to rise from 710 Mt CO2-eq./a in 2020 to 920-1400 Mt CO2-eq./a in 2050. Rapid implementation of inert anodes in smelters can reduce emissions by 14% by 2050. However, a limitation of emissions compatible with a 2 degrees C scenario requires combined action: (1) an improvement of collection and recycling systems to absorb all the available postconsumer scrap, (2) a fast and wide deployment of low-carbon technologies, and (3) a rapid transition to low-carbon electricity sources. These measures need to be implemented even faster in scenarios with a stronger increase in aluminum demand. Lock-in effects are likely: building new capacity using conventional technologies will compromise climate mitigation efforts and would require premature retirement of industrial assets. |
| 英文关键词 | Material flow analysis; aluminum; smelter; recycling; stock dynamics; greenhouse gases; climate change mitigation; industrial assets; lifetime |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| WOS类目 | Engineering, Environmental ; Environmental Sciences |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001229493000001 |
| 来源期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
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| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/297267 |
| 作者单位 | Norwegian University of Science & Technology (NTNU); RWTH Aachen University |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | . Inertia of Technology Stocks: A Technology-Explicit Model for the Transition toward a Low-Carbon Global Aluminum Cycle[J],2024,58(22). |
| APA | (2024).Inertia of Technology Stocks: A Technology-Explicit Model for the Transition toward a Low-Carbon Global Aluminum Cycle.ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY,58(22). |
| MLA | "Inertia of Technology Stocks: A Technology-Explicit Model for the Transition toward a Low-Carbon Global Aluminum Cycle".ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 58.22(2024). |
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