气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Subseasonal Potential Predictability of Horizontal Water Vapor Transport and Precipitation Extremes in the North Pacific

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DOI	10.1175/WAF-D-23-0170.1
	Subseasonal Potential Predictability of Horizontal Water Vapor Transport and Precipitation Extremes in the North Pacific
	Higgins, Timothy B.; Subramanian, Aneesh C.; Chapman, Will E.; Lavers, David A.; Winters, Andrew C.
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0882-8156
EISSN	1520-0434
起始页码	39
结束页码	6
卷号	39 期号:6
英文摘要	Accurate forecasts of weather conditions have the potential to mitigate the social and economic damages they cause. To make informed decisions based on forecasts, it is important to determine the extent to which they could be skillful. This study focuses on subseasonal forecasts out to a lead time of four weeks. We examine the differences between the potential predictability, which is computed under the assumption of a perfect model, of integrated vapor transport (IVT) and precipitation under extreme conditions in subseasonal forecasts across the northeast Paci fi c. Our results demonstrate signi fi cant forecast skill of extreme IVT and precipitation events (exceeding the 90th percentile) into week 4 for speci fi c areas, particularly when anomalously wet conditions are observed in the true model state. This forecast skill during weeks 3 and 4 is closely associated with a zonal extension of the North Paci fi c jet. These fi ndings of the source of skillful subseasonal forecasts over the U.S. West Coast could have implications for water management in these regions susceptible to drought and fl ooding extremes. Additionally, they may offer valuable insights for governments and industries on the U.S. West Coast seeking to make informed decisions based on extended weather prediction.
英文关键词	Atmospheric river; Forecast veri fi cation/skill; Hindcasts; Probability forecasts/models/distribution; Seasonal forecasting
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001233583000001
来源期刊	WEATHER AND FORECASTING
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/297157
作者单位	University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder; National Center Atmospheric Research (NCAR) - USA; European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Higgins, Timothy B.,Subramanian, Aneesh C.,Chapman, Will E.,et al. Subseasonal Potential Predictability of Horizontal Water Vapor Transport and Precipitation Extremes in the North Pacific[J],2024,39(6).
APA	Higgins, Timothy B.,Subramanian, Aneesh C.,Chapman, Will E.,Lavers, David A.,&Winters, Andrew C..(2024).Subseasonal Potential Predictability of Horizontal Water Vapor Transport and Precipitation Extremes in the North Pacific.WEATHER AND FORECASTING,39(6).
MLA	Higgins, Timothy B.,et al."Subseasonal Potential Predictability of Horizontal Water Vapor Transport and Precipitation Extremes in the North Pacific".WEATHER AND FORECASTING 39.6(2024).