气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Are extreme floods in the Danube River getting more frequent?: a case study of the Bratislava station

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DOI	10.2166/wcc.2024.587
	Are extreme floods in the Danube River getting more frequent?: a case study of the Bratislava station
	Lescesen, Igor; Basarin, Biljana; Pavic, Dragoslav; Mudelsee, Manfred; Pekarova, Pavla; Mesaros, Minucer
发表日期	2024
ISSN	2040-2244
EISSN	2408-9354
起始页码	15
结束页码	3
卷号	15 期号:3
英文摘要	In this study, strong and extreme flood events were analysed based on long-term daily runoff records of winter and summer floods in the Danube River between 1876 and 2020, using the peak-over-threshold method. Based on the results, the following conclusions can be made: (1) There is a downward trend in strong winter floods, but it is not statistically significant. Additionally, there is an upward trend in summer floods, but it is not statistically significant. (2) There are statistically significant upward trends in extreme events for both the winter and summer seasons. The results have implications for flood protection and disaster management on the Danube River. Regulating assets in flood-prone areas is essential to minimise economic damage. Public awareness of increasing extreme summer floods is vital for prevention. This study suggests that effective flood risk analysis requires (i) a local to regional scale approach to account for spatial variability and (ii) advanced statistical tools for robust detection of climate extremes and estimating their occurrence rates. HIGHLIGHTS Study of seasonal variability and trends of floods and discharge on the Danube using the peak-over-threshold method. Daily discharge data analysed for Bratislava for the period 1876-2020. Results show increasing trends of extreme events in the future in the summer and winter. The findings are relevant for flood risk analysis and prevention. This study shows directions for future research.
英文关键词	Danube; discharge; floods; seasonality; Slovakia
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Water Resources
WOS类目	Water Resources
WOS记录号	WOS:001162362900001
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/297131
作者单位	University of Novi Sad; University of Potsdam; Helmholtz Association; Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar & Marine Research; Slovak Academy of Sciences; Institute of Hydrology, SAS
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lescesen, Igor,Basarin, Biljana,Pavic, Dragoslav,et al. Are extreme floods in the Danube River getting more frequent?: a case study of the Bratislava station[J],2024,15(3).
APA	Lescesen, Igor,Basarin, Biljana,Pavic, Dragoslav,Mudelsee, Manfred,Pekarova, Pavla,&Mesaros, Minucer.(2024).Are extreme floods in the Danube River getting more frequent?: a case study of the Bratislava station.JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE,15(3).
MLA	Lescesen, Igor,et al."Are extreme floods in the Danube River getting more frequent?: a case study of the Bratislava station".JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE 15.3(2024).