气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Assessment of Suitability Area for Maize Production in Poland Related to the Climate Change and Water Stress

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DOI	10.3390/su16020852
	Assessment of Suitability Area for Maize Production in Poland Related to the Climate Change and Water Stress
	Krol-Badziak, Aleksandra; Kozyra, Jerzy; Rozakis, Stelios
发表日期	2024
EISSN	2071-1050
起始页码	16
结束页码	2
卷号	16 期号:2
英文摘要	In this study, we identify the spatial distribution of water deficits in Poland. The analyses considered expert knowledge in soil categories importance in water stress evaluation influencing the climate suitability for maize production using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP). The Climatic Water Balance was calculated from April to September, for the baseline (BL) period (1981-2010) and two future periods of 2041-2070 (2050s) and 2071-2100 (2080s) using a six-member ensemble of GCM-RCM chain simulations under two representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios: low emissions (LE, RCP4.5) and high emissions (HE, RCP8.5). Taking into consideration water deficiency for the BL period, about 81% of Poland proved highly suitable, 18% moderately suitable and 1% marginally suitable for maize cultivation. According to LE and HE scenarios, the area of Poland that is highly suitable for maize production would decrease to 67 and 69% by the 2050s, and to 64 and 44% by the 2080s. By the 2080s, under the HE scenario, rain-fed maize production would become risky, as 21% of Poland would be marginally suitable, while 11% would not be suitable. According to our findings, supplemental irrigation is one of the effective adaptation strategies to maintain the production potential of maize in Poland.
英文关键词	analytic hierarchy process; water deficit; climatic water balance; irrigation
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Green & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
WOS记录号	WOS:001151421800001
来源期刊	SUSTAINABILITY
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/297004
作者单位	Institute of Soil Science & Plant Cultivation; Technical University of Crete
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Krol-Badziak, Aleksandra,Kozyra, Jerzy,Rozakis, Stelios. Assessment of Suitability Area for Maize Production in Poland Related to the Climate Change and Water Stress[J],2024,16(2).
APA	Krol-Badziak, Aleksandra,Kozyra, Jerzy,&Rozakis, Stelios.(2024).Assessment of Suitability Area for Maize Production in Poland Related to the Climate Change and Water Stress.SUSTAINABILITY,16(2).
MLA	Krol-Badziak, Aleksandra,et al."Assessment of Suitability Area for Maize Production in Poland Related to the Climate Change and Water Stress".SUSTAINABILITY 16.2(2024).