气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Environmental predictors of Escherichia coli concentration at marine beaches in Vancouver, Canada: a Bayesian mixed-effects modelling analysis

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DOI	10.1017/S0950268824000311
	Environmental predictors of Escherichia coli concentration at marine beaches in Vancouver, Canada: a Bayesian mixed-effects modelling analysis
	Desta, Binyam N.; Tustin, Jordan; Sanchez, J. Johanna; Heasley, Cole; Schwandt, Michael; Bishay, Farida; Chan, Bobby; Knezevic-Stevanovic, Andjela; Ash, Randall; Jantzen, David; Young, Ian
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0950-2688
EISSN	1469-4409
起始页码	152
卷号	152
英文摘要	Understanding historical environmental determinants associated with the risk of elevated marine water contamination could enhance monitoring marine beaches in a Canadian setting, which can also inform predictive marine water quality models and ongoing climate change preparedness efforts. This study aimed to assess the combination of environmental factors that best predicts Escherichia coli (E. coli) concentration at public beaches in Metro Vancouver, British Columbia, by combining the region's microbial water quality data and publicly available environmental data from 2013 to 2021. We developed a Bayesian log-normal mixed-effects regression model to evaluate predictors of geometric E. coli concentrations at 15 beaches in the Metro Vancouver Region. We identified that higher levels of geometric mean E. coli levels were predicted by higher previous sample day E. coli concentrations, higher rainfall in the preceding 48 h, and higher 24-h average air temperature at the median or higher levels of the 24-h mean ultraviolet (UV) index. In contrast, higher levels of mean salinity were predicted to result in lower levels of E. coli. Finally, we determined that the average effects of the predictors varied highly by beach. Our findings could form the basis for building real-time predictive marine water quality models to enable more timely beach management decision-making.
英文关键词	Bayesian; environmental factors; Escherichia coli (E. coli); marine water; Vancouver
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Public, Environmental & Occupational Health ; Infectious Diseases
WOS类目	Public, Environmental & Occupational Health ; Infectious Diseases
WOS记录号	WOS:001193295500001
来源期刊	EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/296984
作者单位	Toronto Metropolitan University; Vancouver Coastal Health Research Institute; University of British Columbia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Desta, Binyam N.,Tustin, Jordan,Sanchez, J. Johanna,et al. Environmental predictors of Escherichia coli concentration at marine beaches in Vancouver, Canada: a Bayesian mixed-effects modelling analysis[J],2024,152.
APA	Desta, Binyam N..,Tustin, Jordan.,Sanchez, J. Johanna.,Heasley, Cole.,Schwandt, Michael.,...&Young, Ian.(2024).Environmental predictors of Escherichia coli concentration at marine beaches in Vancouver, Canada: a Bayesian mixed-effects modelling analysis.EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION,152.
MLA	Desta, Binyam N.,et al."Environmental predictors of Escherichia coli concentration at marine beaches in Vancouver, Canada: a Bayesian mixed-effects modelling analysis".EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION 152(2024).