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| DOI | 10.1029/2023EF004288 |
| Evaluating Adaptation Pathways in a Complex Multi-Risk System | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| EISSN | 2328-4277 |
| 起始页码 | 12 |
| 结束页码 | 5 |
| 卷号 | 12期号:5 |
| 英文摘要 | Disaster Risk Management (DRM) is complex due to interacting climate risks from interacting hazards and sectors. We develop a synthetic multi-risk test case to explore the effects of these interactions on decision-making under deep uncertainty. The test case accounts for changes in hazard impacts and occurrence frequency due to interactions between floods and droughts. Interactions between the shipping, housing and agricultural sectors are considered as well. We use this test case to explore the utility of the Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways for Multi-Risk (DAPP-MR) framework. DAPP-MR has been introduced to assess DRM policies' effectiveness under deep uncertainties and to develop integrated adaptive strategies considering interactions across hazards, sectors and time. With the test case, we show that the stage-wise approach of DAPP-MR, which gradually increases the complexity of the analysis, can facilitate the evaluation process. Earlier stages of the analysis can be used to establish the direct cause-effect relations, later stages allow us to identify whether additional interacting factors have a significant effect on the direct cause-effect relations. As a result, decision-makers can gain insights into dependencies and their relevance for developing short-to long-term strategies under deep uncertainty. We show that multi-risk interactions can lead to non-linear effects that influence the outcome of the policy analysis, for example, the indirect influence of a decision in one sector on another. Future work could investigate further improving the operationalization of this staged approach as well as extending the set of uncertainties, dynamics and decision-rules accounted for in the multi-risk test case. This paper addresses the complex challenge that many regions face when dealing with multiple interconnected disasters, like floods, droughts and earthquakes. Traditional Disaster Risk Management methods often fall short, particularly in long-term planning that considers factors such as climate change. We apply a step-by-step approach known as Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways for Multi-Risk (DAPP-MR) to assist decision-makers in better understanding and planning for these intertwined risks over time. This paper employs a hypothetical test case where different sectors (e.g., agricultural sector) seek effective ways to prepare for and respond to flood and drought risks. The DAPP-MR method facilitates this by breaking down the process into smaller, more manageable steps. This approach allows for an easier understanding of the direct effects of disasters and gradually incorporates more complex interactions between different risks. Our findings suggest that this step-by-step method can aid decision-makers in grasping the connections between various factors and their significance in formulating both short- and long-term strategies. The study also reveals that interactions between different risks can produce unexpected, nonlinear effects, adding complexity to the interpretation of policy outcomes. A multi-risk modeling case with interacting hazards and sectors is created to explore effects for decision-making under deep uncertainty Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways for Multi-Risk has proven effective for pathway analysis to grasp interactions and their relevance through a structured, stage-by-stage approach Multi-risk interactions can alter the decision-making outcome because of changes in performance or timings of potential pathways |
| 英文关键词 | multi-hazard; multi-sector; case study; adaptation pathways; disaster risk management; multi-risk |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001232734900001 |
| 来源期刊 | EARTHS FUTURE
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/296374 |
| 作者单位 | Deltares; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | . Evaluating Adaptation Pathways in a Complex Multi-Risk System[J],2024,12(5). |
| APA | (2024).Evaluating Adaptation Pathways in a Complex Multi-Risk System.EARTHS FUTURE,12(5). |
| MLA | "Evaluating Adaptation Pathways in a Complex Multi-Risk System".EARTHS FUTURE 12.5(2024). |
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