气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Frequency Rather Than Intensity Drives Projected Changes of Rainfall Events in Brazil

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2023EF004053
	Frequency Rather Than Intensity Drives Projected Changes of Rainfall Events in Brazil
	Ballarin, Andre S.; Wendland, Edson; Zaerpour, Masoud; Hatami, Shadi; Neto, Antonio A. Meira; Papalexiou, Simon Michael
发表日期	2024
EISSN	2328-4277
起始页码	12
结束页码	1
卷号	12 期号:1
英文摘要	Extreme rainfall events are expected to intensify with global warming, posing significant challenges to both human and natural environments. Despite the importance of such assessments, they are unevenly widespread across the globe. Here, using bias corrected climate simulations of the latest phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we provide a comprehensive assessment on how different rainfall events are expected to change across Brazil. Specifically, (a) we explored the projected changes in both intensity and frequency of rainfall events belonging to the right-tail of the rainfall distribution using a non-parametric approach, and (b) quantified how rainfall events associate with different return periods are expected to intensify, using a parametric approach. We found that extreme rainfall events will become more frequent and intense by the end of the century, with averaged projected changes for rainfall exceeding the historical rainfall quantile q0.99 of nearly 100% and 10% on frequency and intensity, respectively. Non-extreme rainfall events, in contrast, are expected to be less frequent, aligning with the compensation hypothesis. For instance, Brazilian 100-year rainfall are anticipated to intensify, on average, 17% and 31% under the moderate and the highest CMIP6 emission scenarios, respectively. Finally, our findings suggest that frequency, rather than intensity, dictates the projected changes of rainfall. We believe that the evidence gathered here will certainly contribute to not only an improved understanding of Brazilian rainfall events but also to a better comprehension of the different rainfall properties, their interplay and how the different ways of assessing them may affect climate studies. The dynamics of rainfall events are expected to change in the future due to global warming. Understanding how this is likely to happen is extremely important for society, since this information is usually required for water resources management and for the design of infrastructure systems. To this end, studies commonly rely on climate models simulations, as they can offer a preview of forthcoming scenarios, helping us to understand the potential effects of such changes to society. Here, using the last generation of climate model projections, we propose an alternative way to explore how rainfall events might change in Brazil. Our results show that heavy rainfall events will be much more frequent and stronger in the future. For example, heavy rain that usually happens once in 100 years in Brazil could become nearly 31% stronger by the end of the century. Less intense rainfall events, on the other hand, might happen less often. Our results also indicated that changes in the frequency of rainfall events, rather than in their intensity, rules how they are expected to change. This study helps us understand not only what might happen to rainfall events in Brazil but also to improve future climate change impact studies. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6-based assessment of projected changes in the distribution of rainfall events in BrazilExtreme and light/moderate rainfall events are expected to increase and decrease in the country, respectivelyFrequency, rather than intensity, dictates the projected changes in future rainfall events
英文关键词	extreme events; global warming; rainfall; Brazil; CMIP6; climate change
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001148489500001
来源期刊	EARTHS FUTURE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/296373
作者单位	Universidade de Sao Paulo; University of Calgary; McGill University; Colorado State University; Czech University of Life Sciences Prague
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ballarin, Andre S.,Wendland, Edson,Zaerpour, Masoud,et al. Frequency Rather Than Intensity Drives Projected Changes of Rainfall Events in Brazil[J],2024,12(1).
APA	Ballarin, Andre S.,Wendland, Edson,Zaerpour, Masoud,Hatami, Shadi,Neto, Antonio A. Meira,&Papalexiou, Simon Michael.(2024).Frequency Rather Than Intensity Drives Projected Changes of Rainfall Events in Brazil.EARTHS FUTURE,12(1).
MLA	Ballarin, Andre S.,et al."Frequency Rather Than Intensity Drives Projected Changes of Rainfall Events in Brazil".EARTHS FUTURE 12.1(2024).