气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Pitfalls in diagnosing temperature extremes

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DOI	10.1038/s41467-024-46349-x
	Pitfalls in diagnosing temperature extremes
	Brunner, Lukas; Voigt, Aiko
发表日期	2024
EISSN	2041-1723
起始页码	15
结束页码	1
卷号	15 期号:1
英文摘要	Worsening temperature extremes are among the most severe impacts of human-induced climate change. These extremes are often defined as rare events that exceed a specific percentile threshold within the distribution of daily maximum temperature. The percentile-based approach is chosen to follow regional and seasonal temperature variations so that extremes can occur globally and in all seasons, and frequently uses a running seasonal window to increase the sample size for the threshold calculation. Here, we show that running seasonal windows as used in many studies in recent years introduce a time-, region-, and dataset-depended bias that can lead to a striking underestimation of the expected extreme frequency. We reveal that this bias arises from artificially mixing the mean seasonal cycle into the extreme threshold and propose a simple solution that essentially eliminates it. We then use the corrected extreme frequency as reference to show that the bias also leads to an overestimation of future heatwave changes by as much as 30% in some regions. Based on these results we stress that running seasonal windows should not be used without correction for estimating extremes and their impacts. The authors show that a regularly used temperature extreme metric leads to a systematic underestimation of the expected extreme frequency of up to - 75% and propagates to other derived metrics. A simple bias correction is presented to eliminate this error.
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
WOS类目	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001187425700019
来源期刊	NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/295119
作者单位	University of Vienna
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Brunner, Lukas,Voigt, Aiko. Pitfalls in diagnosing temperature extremes[J],2024,15(1).
APA	Brunner, Lukas,&Voigt, Aiko.(2024).Pitfalls in diagnosing temperature extremes.NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,15(1).
MLA	Brunner, Lukas,et al."Pitfalls in diagnosing temperature extremes".NATURE COMMUNICATIONS 15.1(2024).