气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Recent and projected changes in climate patterns in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41598-024-60976-w
	Recent and projected changes in climate patterns in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region
	Francis, Diana; Fonseca, Ricardo
发表日期	2024
ISSN	2045-2322
起始页码	14
结束页码	1
卷号	14 期号:1
英文摘要	Observational and reanalysis datasets reveal a northward shift of the convective regions over northern Africa in summer and an eastward shift in winter in the last four decades, with the changes in the location and intensity of the thermal lows and subtropical highs also modulating the dust loading and cloud cover over the Middle East and North Africa region. A multi-model ensemble from ten models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-sixth phase gives skillful simulations when compared to in-situ measurements and generally captures the trends in the ERA-5 data over the historical period. For the most extreme climate change scenario and towards the end of the twenty-first century, the subtropical highs are projected to migrate poleward by 1.5 degrees, consistent with the projected expansion of the Hadley Cells, with a weakening of the tropical easterly jet in the summer by up to a third and a strengthening of the subtropical jet in winter typically by 10% except over the eastern Mediterranean where the storm track is projected to shift polewards. The length of the seasons is projected to remain about the same, suggesting the warming is likely to be felt uniformly throughout the year.
英文关键词	Heat low; Tropics expansion; Global warming; Trends; CMIP6; MENA region
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
WOS类目	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001214489500024
来源期刊	SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/294982
作者单位	Khalifa University of Science & Technology
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Francis, Diana,Fonseca, Ricardo. Recent and projected changes in climate patterns in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region[J],2024,14(1).
APA	Francis, Diana,&Fonseca, Ricardo.(2024).Recent and projected changes in climate patterns in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,14(1).
MLA	Francis, Diana,et al."Recent and projected changes in climate patterns in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region".SCIENTIFIC REPORTS 14.1(2024).