气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Understanding Links Between Water Scarcity and Violent Conflicts in the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin Using the Water Footprint Concept

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2023EF004013
	Understanding Links Between Water Scarcity and Violent Conflicts in the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin Using the Water Footprint Concept
	Nkiaka, Elias; Bryant, Robert G.; Kom, Zongho
发表日期	2024
EISSN	2328-4277
起始页码	12
结束页码	2
卷号	12 期号:2
英文摘要	Whilst there are several empirical studies linking water scarcity and violent conflicts, existing quantitative studies use mostly climate and environmental variables even though such variables have been shown to not be strong predictors of water conflicts by some studies. The aim of this study was to use the water footprint concept and the Falkenmark index to identify water scarcity hotspots at the sub-national scale and to understand the links between water scarcity and violent conflicts in the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin over a period of two decades (2000-2021). We achieve this by developing five water scarcity metrics at a monthly timescale using runoff, soil moisture, potential evapotranspiration, water consumption and demographic data. The developed metrics show high levels of water scarcity across the study area during the dry, pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons. Analyses further reveal high green water scarcity (GWS) (soil moisture deficit) and low Falkenmark index scores (water stress) during the dry, pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons, across all reported water conflict locations. This suggest that there is an indirect link between GWS, the Falkenmark index scores and water conflicts. Results from this study may be used to enhance water management, mitigate, and prevent water conflicts in the study area and likewise the methodology adopted may be used to address water scarcity and conflicts in other regions. According to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, climate change is expected to increase the prevalence of conflicts across the world due to resources scarcity. The situation is expected to be exacerbated in regions with high population density, low socio-economic development, and high dependence on agriculture. Even though resources scarcity and conflict remain a topical issue within research and development arenas, establishing the direct link between the two has remained problematic. This may probably be due to a lack of an integrated approach to address this issue in a transparent way. Using an integrated approach involving several water scarcity metrics, this study shows that water conflicts in the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin are closely related to soil moisture deficit and population-driven water scarcity during different seasons of a calendar year. By developing different water scarcity metrics at the sub-national and seasonal scales, we have a clearer understanding of which water scarcity metrics are closely linked to conflicts and when water conflicts are prevalent. This implies that approaches to mitigate and prevent water conflicts may target specific water scarcity metrics and seasons within a calendar year. Water scarcity metrics are used to identify water scarcity hotspots and to understand the links between water scarcity and violent conflicts Water scarcity metrics show varying levels of water scarcity across the study area with capital cities being the most affected areas High green water scarcity (soil moisture deficit) and low Falkenmark index scores (water stress) are closely linked to water conflicts
英文关键词	water scarcity metrics; Falkenmark index; armed conflict; central-west Africa; water conflicts
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001154902200001
来源期刊	EARTHS FUTURE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/294949
作者单位	University of Sheffield; University of South Africa
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Nkiaka, Elias,Bryant, Robert G.,Kom, Zongho. Understanding Links Between Water Scarcity and Violent Conflicts in the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin Using the Water Footprint Concept[J],2024,12(2).
APA	Nkiaka, Elias,Bryant, Robert G.,&Kom, Zongho.(2024).Understanding Links Between Water Scarcity and Violent Conflicts in the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin Using the Water Footprint Concept.EARTHS FUTURE,12(2).
MLA	Nkiaka, Elias,et al."Understanding Links Between Water Scarcity and Violent Conflicts in the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin Using the Water Footprint Concept".EARTHS FUTURE 12.2(2024).