气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): An uncertain future change in aridity over the tropics

CCPortal

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ad42b8
	An uncertain future change in aridity over the tropics
	Monerie, Paul-Arthur; Chadwick, Robin; Wilcox, Laura J.; Turner, Andrew G.
发表日期	2024
ISSN	1748-9326
起始页码	19
结束页码	5
卷号	19 期号:5
英文摘要	An ensemble of climate models from phase six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project shows that temperature and potential evapotranspiration (PET) are projected to increase globally towards the end of the 21st century. However, climate models show a spatially heterogeneous change in precipitation over the tropics. Consequently, future changes in aridity (a measure of water availability) are complex and location-dependent. We assess future changes in aridity using three climate models and several single-forcing experiments. Near-term (2021-2040) changes in aridity are small, and we focus instead on its long-term (2081-2100) changes. We show that the increase in greenhouse gases (GHG) primarily explains the spatial pattern, magnitude and ensemble spread of the long-term future changes in aridity. On this timescale, the effects of changes in emissions of anthropogenic aerosols are moderate compared to the effects of increases in atmospheric GHG concentrations. Model diversity in the responses to GHG concentration is large over northern Africa and North and South America. We suggest the large uncertainty is due to differences between models in simulating the effects of an increase in GHG concentrations on surface air temperature over the North Atlantic Ocean, on the interhemispheric temperature gradient, and on PET over North and South America.
英文关键词	summer monsoon precipitation; aridity; climate change; greenhouse gases; anthropogenic aerosols; CMIP6
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001221187200001
来源期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/294350
作者单位	UK Research & Innovation (UKRI); Natural Environment Research Council (NERC); NERC National Centre for Atmospheric Science; University of Exeter; Met Office - UK; Hadley Centre; University of Reading
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Monerie, Paul-Arthur,Chadwick, Robin,Wilcox, Laura J.,et al. An uncertain future change in aridity over the tropics[J],2024,19(5).
APA	Monerie, Paul-Arthur,Chadwick, Robin,Wilcox, Laura J.,&Turner, Andrew G..(2024).An uncertain future change in aridity over the tropics.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,19(5).
MLA	Monerie, Paul-Arthur,et al."An uncertain future change in aridity over the tropics".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 19.5(2024).