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| DOI | 10.1057/s41308-023-00231-w |
| Climate Disasters and Exchange Rates: Are Beliefs Keeping up with Climate Change? | |
| Hale, Galina | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| ISSN | 2041-4161 |
| EISSN | 2041-417X |
| 起始页码 | 72 |
| 结束页码 | 1 |
| 卷号 | 72期号:1 |
| 英文摘要 | There is clear scientific evidence of the shift in the probability distribution of climate-related disasters in recent decades. Is this shift reflected in the behavior of forward-looking measures of economic activity such as real exchange rates? I evaluate the role of different belief formation assumptions on the ability of the model to predict the response of real exchange rates to climate-related disasters. I consider Bayesian and backward-looking belief updates as well as static beliefs with no update or a one-time update. To do so, I construct a version of the Farhi-Gabaix (2015) framework augmented with explicit belief formation. I use two approaches to model calibration and simulate the model for 47 countries for 1964-2019 using actual data for climate-related disasters. I find that in general differences in belief formation do not have much effect on the model fit because the productivity loss component dominates the predicted response. Specifically, I find that even in recent years there is no evidence of Bayesian beliefs being a better fit for the data. |
| 英文关键词 | F21; F23; F64 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Business & Economics |
| WOS类目 | Business, Finance ; Economics |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001159385200001 |
| 来源期刊 | IMF ECONOMIC REVIEW
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/293682 |
| 作者单位 | Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of California System; University of California Santa Cruz; National Bureau of Economic Research |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Hale, Galina. Climate Disasters and Exchange Rates: Are Beliefs Keeping up with Climate Change?[J],2024,72(1). |
| APA | Hale, Galina.(2024).Climate Disasters and Exchange Rates: Are Beliefs Keeping up with Climate Change?.IMF ECONOMIC REVIEW,72(1). |
| MLA | Hale, Galina."Climate Disasters and Exchange Rates: Are Beliefs Keeping up with Climate Change?".IMF ECONOMIC REVIEW 72.1(2024). |
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